Under the backdrop of profound changes in the global financial landscape and China's promotion of its financial security strategy, the effective identification, precise monitoring, and scientific prevention of systemic risks have become pivotal for ensuring financial stability and fostering high-quality economic development. We systematically review the traditional theoretical perspectives on the three elements of systemic risk-shocks, amplification mechanisms, and negative externalities, as well as the two dimensions of time and space. By moving beyond the limitations of a single perspective, we integrate the dual viewpoints of economic-finance vertical correlation （the cyclical relationship between the financial system and the real economy）and internal horizontal correlation within the financial system（the interconnections among financial institutions and markets）. This combination constructs a theoretical framework for the generation, prevention, and resolution of systemic risks, offering a more comprehensive perspective for a deeper understanding of their inherent logic. The core research conclusions are as follows.
Firstly, the evolution of systemic risks can be concretized as three key links within the“economic-finance linkage”framework. These include the initial impact of the real economy on the financial sector（corresponding to the risk shock element）, the circulation of risk shocks internally within the financial system（corresponding to the risk amplification mechanism）, and the reverse impact of systemic risks in the financial system on the real economy（corresponding to the risk negative externality element）. These links constitute the complete chain of systemic risks from generation to outbreak, highlighting the interconnectedness and dynamic nature of financial risks.
Secondly, the links within the“economic-finance linkage”framework correspond precisely to the dimensions of systemic risks. The first and third links focus on the time dimension, reflecting the dynamic evolution of vertical economic-finance correlations over time. In contrast, the second link focuses on the spatial dimension, representing the internal interconnections within the financial system and illustrating how risks can spread and amplify across different institutions and markets.
Thirdly, based on the“economic-financial interaction”theoretical framework, a financial security monitoring and early warning system can be established. This system enables real-time monitoring, dynamic assessment, and early warning of systemic risks, providing a solid decision-making basis for financial regulatory authorities to take timely countermeasures and proactively prevent the occurrence of systemic financial risks.
Fourthly, there are significant differences in the effectiveness of the two types of risk management models. Micro-level financial risk management performs better in responding to individual shocks, but it is limited by the correlation and cyclical nature of the financial system, leading to problems such as a reduction in individual risk while overall risk vulnerability accumulates, and the convergence of short-term risks that may trigger long-term risk rebounds. In contrast, systemic risk management can effectively respond through measures like moderately relaxing excessive regulations and encouraging collaboration among financial institutions. This approach is particularly crucial during periods of rising financial pressure, as it helps mitigate the potential for systemic crises and maintain financial stability.

This study explores the dual dimensions of knowledge network capabilities—knowledge network complexity and knowledge network connectivity—and their differentiated impact mechanisms on urban technology entrepreneurship. Based on network theory and the innovation ecosystem perspective, the research utilizes a comprehensive panel dataset covering Chinese cities from 2011 to 2023. Fixed-effects models are employed for analysis, accompanied by robustness tests.
The findings reveal that both knowledge network complexity and connectivity significantly promote technological entrepreneurship. However, human capital, venture capital, and government technology investments weaken the positive effect of complexity on entrepreneurship, while collectively reinforcing the positive impact of connectivity. Heterogeneity tests further indicate that the complexity effect of knowledge networks is more pronounced in provincial capitals and central cities, whereas the connectivity effect is stronger in non-provincial capitals and non-central cities. Eastern regions benefit more from both types of networks due to their institutional and infrastructure advantages.
The theoretical contributions of this study are as follows. Firstly, it decouples the dual dimensions of knowledge network capabilities, revealing the differentiated pathways through which knowledge network complexity and connectivity influence urban technology entrepreneurship. Secondly, it identifies a moderation paradox—where key ecosystem elements exert opposing effect on the two dimensions of knowledge networks—challenging the traditional assumption that resource investment inevitably leads to efficiency gains. Thirdly, it constructs a governance framework of“complexity control—connectivity priority,”promoting the deep integration of network theory and innovation ecosystem research.
Based on the research findings, the following insights can be drawn. Firstly, urban managers must develop a deep understanding of the dual dimensions of knowledge network capabilities and abandon a one-size-fits-all approach. Secondly, the empirical results show that human capital, venture capital, and government investment inhibit the relationship between knowledge network complexity and urban technology entrepreneurship, but enhance the relationship between knowledge network connectivity and urban technology entrepreneurship. Therefore, cities should make strategic choices based on their endowments in these key moderating variables. Thirdly, in terms of optimizing key moderating variables, policies should guide human capital, venture capital, and government technology investment to more effectively support the development of knowledge network capabilities.
This study provides an in-depth analysis of how knowledge network complexity and connectivity drive urban technology entrepreneurship, emphasizing the urgent need for differentiated policy solutions tailored to specific network dimensions and localized contexts within China's dynamic innovation landscape.

This study empirically investigates the impact of sovereign debt on the cyclicality of fiscal policy, exploring its underlying mechanisms and nonlinearities. Using macroeconomic data from 72 advanced and emerging economies between 1993 and 2022, the analysis employs a two-way fixed effects panel model to control for unobserved heterogeneity and time-varying global shocks. A threshold regression model is also employed to capture potential nonlinear effects and identify critical debt turning points. These approaches are supplemented by comprehensive mechanism tests to disentangle the channels through which debt influences fiscal discretion.
The findings reveal a dual role of sovereign debt. Baseline regressions show that an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio generally reduces fiscal procyclicality. Specifically, a one-unit rise in the debt ratio corresponds to a 1.2% to 3.4% decrease in the likelihood of procyclical measures. This suggests that initial debt accumulation can provide fiscal space for countercyclical policies, helping stabilize economies during downturns. However, further analysis using threshold regression identifies a nonlinear relationship: beyond a certain debt level, the disciplining effect weakens, and fiscal policy becomes increasingly procyclical again. This indicates that while moderate debt may enhance fiscal flexibility, excessive debt can undermine it, possibly due to heightened borrowing constraints or market pressure. Mechanism tests confirm that institutional quality and access to credit markets significantly influence this transition, highlighting the importance of the economic and institutional contexts in shaping fiscal outcomes.
However, a critical nonlinearity exists. A risk threshold effect emerges when the sovereign risk premium falls between 39% and 113%. Beyond this range, further debt accumulation intensifies fiscal procyclicality. Highly indebted countries may then shift from active countercyclical intervention to passive procyclical austerity to reassure markets and avoid fiscal crisis. Mechanism analysis shows that stable economic growth and high trade openness significantly moderate this relationship. These factors provide funding sources for long-term development and strengthen the positive impact of debt on countercyclical policy.
The results offer important policy implications. Firstly, a dynamic debt risk monitoring system should be established, incorporating a composite index based on debt structure and level metrics. Secondly, fiscal policy should be optimized to control deficits. Deficit targets ought to be integrated into annual budgets and medium-term frameworks. During economic slowdowns, expenditure structures must be prioritized to protect critical sectors like education and healthcare, while non-essential spending is reduced. Innovative tools like green bonds can help diversify investors and lower borrowing costs. Thirdly, enhancing international cooperation is vital. Given global financial interconnectedness, countries should collaborate to manage systemic debt risks. Strengthening mutual assistance among developing nations can reduce constraints from international capital, diminish developed countries' dominance in global finance, and help shift fiscal policy from procyclical to countercyclical stances.

In recent years, the frequent emergence of sever risk events have occurred in small-and-medium-sized banks（SMBs）in China, and the widespread increase in risk-taking has attracted heightened attention from the market. In response, the Central Financial Work Conference explicitly outlined the work arrangements and requirements for early identification, early warning, early exposure, and early resolution of risks, aiming to prevent and mitigate risks faced by SMBs. Based on the development and reform of China's banking industry, this paper utilizes micro-data from 464 commercial banks in the banking industry from 2011 to 2020. Taking the formal implementation of the deposit insurance system in 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper employs the Difference-in-Differences（DID）method to examine the asymmetric impact of this system on the risk-taking levels of large banks and SMBs. The research results of this paper indicate that, the individual risk-taking levels of large banks, represented by systemically important banks, generally declined after the introduction of the deposit insurance system, which exerts stabilizing effect on the financial system. Compared to large banks, the risk-taking levels of China's SMBs,represented by urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks and village banks has significantly increased, and the moral hazard effect of the deposit insurance system is more pronounced among SMBs. In terms of major marginal contributions, different from existing research, this paper focuses on non-listed SMBs, with sample banks encompassing diversified entities such as city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, village banks, and rural credit cooperatives. Additionally, this paper further investigates the internal mechanisms behind the increase in risk-taking levels among SMBs, and a mechanism analysis is conducted from the perspective of the proactive business behavior choices of non-listed SMBs. Empirical results demonstrate that SMBs in China exhibit a significant tendency towards excessive risk-taking through their specific business behaviors and strategies in both asset and liability businesses. Firstly, in terms of asset-side business, based on asset-side operational indicators, this paper conducts empirical analysis on SMBs, which exhibit significant excessive risk-taking behavior in their loan business operations and asset structure allocation. Secondly, in terms of debt-side business, based on debt-side operational indicators, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on SMBs, which adjusts the debt management strategies to increase the proportion of interbank liabilities and reduce the proportion of their own capital, indicating significant excessive risk-taking behavior. In addition, research on the grouping of different SMBs shows that equity structure, capital adequacy, and credit risk level have differentiated impacts on risk-taking behavior. This has significant implications for further strengthening deposit insurance supervision and improving mechanism design. In the current trend of continuously narrowing interest margins in the banking industry, based on research, this article suggests further improving the design of the deposit insurance system, exploring differentiated deposit insurance regulatory measures, including further improving the deposit insurance premium rate determination mechanism, regulating internal governance issues of small and medium-sized banks, enhancing the efficiency of deposit insurance regulation, and preventing and resolving risks of SMBs in a timely manner.

As global carbon dioxide emissions increase, climate change poses complex risks to the banking industry. China is actively promoting a low-carbon transition and strengthening climate-related risk assessments globally. The PCAF's“The Global GHG Accounting and Reporting Standard for the Financial Industry”requires financial institutions to account for carbon emissions, particularly Scope 3 carbon emissions from banking loan activities. Meanwhile, regulatory authorities such as the People's Bank of China have also introduced relevant policies. Banking credit operations have always been at the core of their business, and climate transition risks, especially the impact of Scope 3 carbon emissions on banking credit risks, are now receiving widespread attention. Strengthening the identification of this new risk factor—carbon emissions—is crucial for banks to ensure credit risks remain manageable and to achieve the dual carbon goals.
Based on this, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of banks' Scope 3 carbon emissions on credit risk using a sample of 190 Chinese banks from 2013 to 2022. The study finds that higher carbon emissions increase banks' credit risk, transmitted through three key channels: underestimation of interest rate pricing, weakening of green reputation and exacerbation of corporate maturity mismatch. The effect is heterogeneous: banks with larger assets, higher provision coverage ratios, stronger ESG scores, or those located in low-pollution regions tend to focus more on carbon reduction and risk control objectives, effectively mitigating the negative impact of bank carbon emissions on credit risk. In addition, higher energy prices will lead to a reduction in energy imports and consumption, reducing the impact of bank carbon emissions on credit risk.
The main contributions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, although relevant policy documents have proposed carbon emissions accounting work, specific calculation methods have yet to be clearly defined. This paper uses publicly available data from domestic carbon markets, the China Energy Statistical Yearbook, bank annual reports, and other sources to provide a reference for financial institutions in formulating related policies. Secondly, existing literature primarily focuses on the impact of financial technology and corporate carbon emissions on credit risk. However, under the framework of the dual carbon goals, the financial risks brought about by climate change are attracting increasing attention. Scope 3 carbon emissions are closely tied to banking credit activities, and this paper examines the pathways through which carbon emissions affect credit risk from the perspective of climate transition risk. It offers strategic guidance for banks in advancing the dual carbon goals and managing associated risks, while also providing new empirical evidence. Thirdly, existing literature primarily explores the impact of macro-level climate physical risks on banks, while neglecting climate transition risks such as bank carbon emissions. This paper reveals the impact of banks' carbon emissions on credit risk from three perspectives, providing new references for banks' credit risk management. Additionally, it analyzes the significant heterogeneity arising from factors such as energy price fluctuations, regional industry characteristics, environmental pollution, and bank attributes, emphasizing that banks should tailor their credit risk management strategies to local conditions. This paper further provides macro- and micro-level empirical evidence on the impact of carbon emissions on bank credit risk.

As a core channel of external financing, debt financing plays a critical role in the long-term operation of enterprises. However, due to information asymmetry and principal-agent problems, creditors often cannot fully grasp the true condition of corporate management, making it difficult to accurately assess enterprises' risk-bearing capacity, which leads to higher debt financing costs. In recent years, institutional investors have developed rapidly, and their coordinated actions and collective governance participation have profoundly influenced corporate operations, thereby affecting corporate debt financing costs. Against this background, this research explores whether cooperation among institutional investors can substantially impact the cost of corporate debt by altering creditors' risk perceptions. Clarifying the issue not only extends the understanding of the relationship between institutional investor clique and debt contract design, but also provides a novel governance perspective for addressing the challenges of corporate debt financing.
The research analyzes the impact of institutional investor cliques on the cost of corporate debt from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Theoretically, based on information asymmetry theory, agency theory, and shareholder activism, the paper explains the formation of institutional investor cliques and reveals the mechanisms through which they affect the cost of corporate debt. Empirically, using a sample of A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2022, institutional investor cliques are identified through the Louvain and Bron-Kerbosch algorithms, and their relationship with the cost of debt is examined through OLS regressions, robustness tests, mechanism analyses, and heterogeneity tests.
The main findings are as follows. Firstly, institutional investor cliques significantly reduce the cost of corporate debt. This effect remains robust after employing instrumental variable estimation, the Heckman two-stage model, propensity score matching（PSM）, and alternative sample periods and variable measures. Secondly, mechanism analysis indicates that disclosure quality and agency costs constitute the two core channels through which institutional investor clique affects the cost of debt. Thirdly, heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of institutional investor cliques varies with firms' ownership type, industry affiliation, stock liquidity, and external audit quality. The impact is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises, non-high-tech firms, and firms with lower stock liquidity or weaker external audit quality.
Based on the findings, several policy implications emerge. Firstly, governments and regulatory authorities should enhance both the willingness and capacity of institutional investors to participate in corporate governance. This can be achieved by refining legal and tax incentive policies, fostering communication and cooperation among institutions, and guiding institutional investors towards a long-term value orientation. Secondly, firms should recognize the role of institutional investor cliques in alleviating debt burdens. In particular, state-owned enterprises, non-high-tech firms, and firms with lower stock liquidity or weaker audit quality should take the lead in involving institutional investors in governance. Thirdly, creditors are advised to incorporate signals from institutional investor cliques into credit assessments, taking into account institutional reputation, corporate financial conditions, and the intended use of debt, in order to accurately evaluate repayment capacity and reduce default risk.

The development of digital finance is an inevitable choice for advancing the construction of a financially robust country and an important pathway for achieving sustainable development goals. This paper, based on ESG news sentiment data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2021, constructs a systematic analytical framework for digital finance, digital economy regulation, and corporate ESG performance, and empirically analyzes their underlying logic. The study finds that the development of digital finance significantly improves corporate ESG performance, reflected in a notable increase in ESG news sentiment. Moreover, digital economy regulation strengthens the realization of this effect. Mechanism analysis reveals that digital finance alleviates corporate financing constraints, enhances ESG financial cooperation, and optimizes corporate innovation quality and pathway orientation, thereby improving corporate ESG performance. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive effect of digital finance on corporate ESG performance is more pronounced in pollution-intensive industries and in regions with stronger ESG governance. These findings provide new empirical insights into the role of digital finance in corporate sustainable development and offers practical implications for advancing the construction of a financial powerhouse in China.
The main contributions of this study are as follows. Firstly, this paper integrates digital economy regulation into the analytical framework of digital finance and corporate ESG activities, focusing on the regulatory mechanisms of its subdimensions, and provides new theoretical evidence for understanding the driving forces behind corporate adoption of sustainable development principles and for improving the development system of digital finance. Secondly, based on over two million ESG news texts from listed companies, this paper provides unique information that ESG rating data and general news cannot capture, offering a richer perspective for deepening ESG-related research. Thirdly, this paper analyzes the internal mechanisms through which digital finance affects corporate ESG performance from the perspectives of ESG financial cooperation and innovation transformation（innovation quality and pathway orientation）, and provides a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the impact of this effect in different contexts. The study offers valuable references for the government to formulate targeted and differentiated digital finance policies.
This study has three policy implications. Firstly, promote innovative policies that integrate digital finance with ESG principles. The government should encourage and guide financial institutions to embed ESG standards into the design of financial products（such as ESG bonds and ESG funds）, thereby fostering firms' active participation in sustainable development initiatives. Secondly, regulatory authorities should establish ESG information disclosure platforms and real-time ESG sentiment monitoring systems; additionally, they should also develop evaluation frameworks based on large language models. These measures can help firms standardize ESG disclosures, better manage ESG sentiment risks, and enhance the transparency of financial markets. Thirdly, optimize the digital economy regulatory framework to strengthen synergies between digital finance and corporate ESG performance.