New quality productivity is not only crucial to high-quality economic development and the future of Chinese-style modernization. It has also posed brand new challenges for finance. This paper looked into the background against which the conception was put forward and considered some related concepts and theoretical evolution, with focus on the connotations of total factor productivity(TFP), which is the key symbol of new quality productivity. On this basis, the paper brought about the idea of the new positioning of financial role. It is found that the role played by finance varies in different developmental periods. In response to the different stages of growth, there have appeared three expressions: the doctrine of cashier, the doctrine of core and the doctrine of blood, with the former two respectively in correspondence with the pattern of recovery and reconstruction growth and that of factor input growth, the latter with a growth induced by combined factors, which constitutes the essence of new quality productivity. The new positioning of financial role surely requires to restructure the financial system. Following the significant strategic adjustment with regard to the function of capital market and financial system on the part of central government, with each on its newly defined place on the market, it seems inevitable that there will come into being a Chinese style optimal financial structure to underpin the new quality development and modernization. In the end, as a logical extension of the new quality productivity consisting of both technological progress and institutional improvement, the paper combed the relationship between financial technology, financial system and financial resource allocation efficiency.
This paper uses the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Project as a proxy variable for the digital economy. Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies from 2014 to 2020, this paper empirically examines the impact of this policy on rural household financial vulnerability by using staggered difference-in-differences(DID)model. The findings indicate that this policy can significantly reduce rural household financial vulnerability. Mechanism analysis shows that improving rural household agricultural production and operational income, increasing the total output value of agricultural production, promoting non-agricultural employment, and narrowing the rural digital divide are important channels for this policy to reduce household financial vulnerability. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy exerts a more pronounced negative impact on the financial vulnerability of villages with lower levels of economic development and market accessibility, and among rural households with lower income and educational attainment, demonstrating the policy's relative inclusivity. Further analysis shows that digital credit and digital payment can strengthen the policy's effect in reducing rural household financial vulnerability. This study provides a new perspective for the development of E-commerce and digital economy in consolidating poverty alleviation achievements and promoting rural revitalization, offering valuable references for the formulation of relevant policies.
Amid deepening financial globalization and liberalization, the interconnectedness of national financial systems has progressively intensified. While facilitating international capital flows and optimizing financial efficiency, this trend has also complicated the transmission of financial risks. The normalization of geopolitical turbulence and financial sanctions has further increased financial systems' sensitivity to external shocks. Consequently, regulatory guidance in constructing resilient financial systems becomes crucial for crisis mitigation and socioeconomic stability. This paper takes macroprudential policies with strong systematic and dynamic characteristics as the entry point to explore potential pathways for enhancing financial resilience. Utilizing panel data from 66 countries over the period 1991-2021, this paper employs multiple methodologies, including the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method, an instrumental variable approach, a two-way fixed effects model, and a coupling coordination degree model, to examine the impact of macroprudential policies on financial resilience, with particular focus on the bank credit channel. The key findings indicate that macroprudential policies significantly improve financial resilience primarily through two mechanisms: curbing credit bubble accumulation and enhancing loan quality. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates more pronounced policy effects in countries with higher income levels, market-oriented financial systems, and advanced financial development. Further analysis demonstrates functional complementarity between monetary policy and macroprudential regulation in synergistically enhancing financial resilience. This paper contributes novel insights into the assessment and improvement of international financial resilience. By analyzing the credit transmission mechanisms and the effects of policy coordination, it clarifies both the endogenous logic and exogenous drivers of macroprudential policies in fostering financial resilience. The conclusions provide critical decision-making references for strengthening financial systems' shock-absorption capacity through optimal policy instrument selection, thereby safeguarding national financial security and stability.
Since the 2008 global financial crisis, strengthening macroprudential regulation has become an global consensus. Under the advocacy and guidance of the G20, many countries have actively established and refined macroprudential policy frameworks, primarily focusing on the banking system through the introduction of various regulatory tools such as countercyclical capital buffers and liquidity requirements. Nevertheless, compared to monetary policy, macroprudential management remains less mature. Against this backdrop, China has also placed strong emphasis on financial stability, identifying the improvement and expansion of macroprudential functions as a key strategic priority. This study consolidates cross-country experiences and empirical insights to provide a comprehensive review of macroprudential policy implementation, with a particular focus on understanding transmission mechanisms, policy effectiveness, and the main determinants of outcomes. The review highlights several key findings. Firstly, the application of macroprudential tools has expanded significantly since the crisis, with policy stances generally tightening except for temporary easing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondly, focusing on the goals of“leaning against the wind”and“building resilience”, these measures have enhanced economic and financial stability by influencing the behavior of financial institutions and borrowers as well as stabilizing credit growth, asset prices, and economic cycles at both the micro and macro levels. Thirdly, policy effectiveness depends on six factors—intervention direction, policy strength, timing within the financial cycle, implementation duration, the scope of targeted entities, and coordination with other policies. Notably, emerging market economies tend to achieve better outcomes due to stronger policy targeting and greater policy coherence. In the post-pandemic era, heightened global economic uncertainty, accelerated digital transformation in financial systems, a shift toward market-based financing, and the emergence of new risk sources present significant challenges to the traditional bank-centric macroprudential framework. To better adapt to this increasingly complex and dynamic financial environment, countries need to rapidly enhance governance mechanisms, strengthen systemic risk monitoring and early-warning capabilities, refine the precision and effectiveness of macroprudential tools, and broaden regulatory coverage. Finally, drawing on China's practical experience, this paper provides targeted policy recommendations, aiming to contribute valuable insights toward further refining macroprudential policy frameworks and enhancing policy effectiveness.
This paper studies whether a floating exchange rate regime can buffer the impact of global financial risk shocks on the extreme changes of global banks' capital inflows, and seeks to contribute to the debate between the“Trilemma”and the“Dilemma”from the perspective of extreme fluctuations in cross-border capital inflows. Firstly, by using the liquidity spiral mechanism, this paper constructs a theoretical model to explain how global financial risk shocks affect the extreme changes in cross-border capital inflows, and how exchange rate regime may influence this relationship. Secondly, this paper constructs two indicators of extreme changes of cross-border capital inflows based on LBS database of International Bank of Settlement, namely capital surges and capital stops. Thirdly, this paper empirically examines the relationship among global financial risk shocks, exchange rate regimes and the extreme changes in global banks' capital inflows. The findings suggest that global financial risk shocks increase the likelihood of capital stop and reduce the likelihood of capital surges. Moreover, a more flexible exchange rate regime may amplify the transmission of global risk shocks to extremes in cross-border bank capital flows. The paper concludes that floating exchange rate regimes may not fully absorb the effects of external shocks on the extreme changes of cross-border capital flows totally, which supports the“Dilemma”hypothesis to some extent. To prevent cross-border financial risk contagion, this paper proposes the following three recommendations. Firstly, a managed floating exchange rate regime remains appropriate for China. It is essential to maintain relative exchange rate stability during periods of heightened global financial risk. Secondly, there is a need to refine indicators that measure the extreme changes in cross-border capital flows within the banking sector, alongside establishing an early warning system. Thirdly, China's financial opening-up should proceed in a gradual and well-sequenced approach. While expanding the inter-connectivity of the financial system, it is essential to maintain financial stability.
Since the “8·11” RMB exchange rate forming mechanism reform in 2015, the marketization and internationalization of the RMB exchange rate have increased significantly, resulting in greater fluctuations and episodes of excessive appreciation or depreciation. In response, the People's Bank of China(PBoC)has gradually adopted Foreign Exchange(FX)-related macroprudential policies to adjust the exchange rate counter-cyclically to prevent the risk of RMB exchange rate overshooting. From the perspective of exchange rate tail risk management, this paper examines the mechanism and effectiveness of the FX-related macroprudential policies implemented by the PBoC to address the excessive exchange rate movements. Firstly, this paper analyzes the mechanism of FX-related macroprudential tools adjusting the exchange rate counter-cyclically based on the partial equilibrium model of FX-market. Combining with the theory of FX-market heterogeneous agent, this paper put forward the hypothesis that the policy effectiveness of macroprudential tools is most pronounced when the exchange rate is at the tails of its distribution. Secondly, using quantile regression, this paper constructs a flexible-price monetary model of the RMB exchange rate including the variables of macroprudential tools and examines the policy effectiveness of prudential tools in managing the exchange rate counter-cyclically when the exchange rate is at the left tail(excessive appreciation)or at the right tail(excessive depreciation). Thirdly, the paper uses local projection model to examine the counter-cyclical effect of prudential tools on exchange rate management from the prospective of mean responses. The results show that all tools can adjust the tail distribution of RMB exchange rate counter-cyclically, with those focusing on tail risks performing better than those targeting the mean of RMB exchange rate level. The result also indicates an asymmetric policy effect between left-tail and right-tail management. Specifically, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio and foreign exchange risk reserve ratio are effective in managing both tails, while the counter-cyclical factor is more effective for right-tail management, and the cross-border financing coefficient is more effective for left-tail management. The contribution of this paper is to provide theoretical and empirical evidence on how FX-related macroprudential policies can manage exchange rate tail risks. Policy recommendations are as follows: when the RMB exchange rate shows the risk of excessive depreciation, the PBoC should lower the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio and raise the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for the tail management. When the RMB exchange rate shows the risk of excessive appreciation, the PBoC should raise the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio, lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio and reduce the cross-border financing coefficient for the tail management.
With the accelerated development of information technologies such as cloud computing, big data, and blockchain, data as a new production factor, has profoundly changed the way of production, lifestyle, and social governance. Data has also become a high-quality production factor driving the formation of new quality productivity. As an important measure in the governance of data elements, local governments have successively established financing service platforms for small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)since 2015. These platforms have enhanced the sharing of credit information for SMEs and improved China's high-quality financial service system. This paper takes the establishment of local government financing service platforms for SMEs as an exogenous shock, and uses the difference-in-differences method to explore their impact on new quality productivity. Firstly, we find that the establishment of government financing service platforms significantly promotes the new quality productivity of SMEs. Secondly, mechanism analysis shows that government financing service platforms positively affect new quality productivity by alleviating financing constraints and reducing agency conflicts. Thirdly, for firms with smaller scale, higher dependence on external financing, lower collateral value, stronger financing constraints, and for regions with higher levels of intellectual property protection, lower marketization, lower economic development, and lower digital economy development, the local government financing service platforms have a greater promoting effect on new quality productivity. Fourthly, this paper also finds that the establishment of government financing service platforms improves the technological innovation and total factor productivity of SMEs. This paper not only reveals the economic consequences of information sharing from the perspective of data element governance, but also explores the economic consequences of bank financing from the perspective of new quality productivity. Furthermore, this paper also provides a theoretical foundation for advancing new quality productivity through data elements, and offers policy recommendations for optimizing and improving the construction of local government financing service platforms.