12 October 2026, Volume 0 Issue 10

    

• Select all
  |

• Select
  US Tariff Shocks and Adjustments in the De Facto RMB Currency Basket

  Zhang Chong, Cao Pengju, Liu Yao

  Studies of International Finance. 2026, 0(10): 3-16.

  Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( )   Knowledge map   Save

  In early 2025, the Trump administration introduced a“reciprocal tariffs”policy, bringing the impact of US tariff policy on the international status of the US dollar into sharp focus in the field of international finance. Using the two episodes of China-US trade frictions in 2018-2019 and early 2025 as the sample periods, this paper first estimates the weight of the US dollar in the de facto currency basket of the renminbi and then empirically examines the effect of US tariffs on Chinese goods on that weight. Specifically, the basket weights are estimated within the Frankel-Wei framework via rolling-window regressions of daily exchange-rate changes on nine candidate currencies, with the optimal window of 205 trading days selected by minimizing the mean squared error. The empirical analysis uses monthly data from January 2017 to December 2025 and employs threshold regressions to capture regime-dependent effects.
  The main findings are as follows. Firstly, over the longer term, increases in US tariffs on Chinese goods reduce the dollar's weight in the renminbi's de facto currency basket. During 2018-2019, a rise of nearly 18 percentage points in the US trade-weighted tariff rate lowered the dollar weight by more than 20 percentage points to 42 percent. Secondly, over the longer term, US tariff policy erodes the foundations of the dollar's weight and thereby reduces the dollar's weight by reducing the bilateral trade and bilateral investment shares between China and the United States. Thirdly, in the short run, Chinese policymakers face a trade-off between allowing the exchange rate to adjust in line with market forces and maintaining exchange-rate stability to safeguard domestic economic and financial security. When the tariff rate is below 7.25 percent, the renminbi exchange rate is permitted to adjust according to market supply and demand; once the tariff rate exceeds 19.3 percent, preventing exchange-rate overshooting and systemic financial risk becomes the primary policy objective.
  To mitigate the impact of US tariff shocks and safeguard China's financial security, the paper offers two policy recommendations. Firstly, over the longer horizon, China should steadily reduce its reliance on the dollar—and thereby weaken the dollar's role as a monetary anchor—by optimizing its trade structure, promoting renminbi invoicing and settlement, and refining the formation mechanism of the central parity rate. Secondly, China should establish a tiered tariff-response mechanism that carefully balances exchange-rate flexibility with financial stability: when tariff levels are relatively low, market-oriented adjustment should predominate, allowing moderate renminbi depreciation to cushion the tariff shock; when tariffs enter a higher range, priority should be given to exchange-rate stability and risk containment.
  The main contributions of this paper are as follows. By examining the impact of US tariff policy on the weight of the US dollar in the renminbi's currency basket, the paper effectively bridges theories from international trade and international finance. It sheds light on how trade decoupling induces a rebalancing of currency-basket weights, thereby offering policy insights for China in managing trade frictions and refining the renminbi exchange-rate formation mechanism. In addition, the analysis provides useful reference points for other emerging-market economies in designing exchange-rate policies when confronting analogous external shocks.
• Select
  FinTech Empowerment, Supply Chain Network Restructuring, and Total Factor Productivity

  Xu Yueli, Guo Binhua, Lu Yao

  Studies of International Finance. 2026, 0(10): 17-32.

  Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( )   Knowledge map   Save

  FinTech has emerged as an important pathway for promoting high-quality economic development. Existing studies have extensively examined the productivity effects of FinTech, but these studies have largely overlooked the increasingly networked characteristics of modern production systems, and productivity improvements depend not only on internal capabilities but also on the efficiency of inter-firm coordination. This paper examines how bank digital transformation enhances firm-level total factor productivity（TFP）through the restructuring of corporate supply chain networks.
  To explore the underlying mechanism, this paper develops a theoretical framework that integrates a“two-layer matching mechanism-network externalities-production function”model. The model illustrates how FinTech affects productivity by reshaping firms' network structures. Specifically, FinTech improves information accessibility, reduces transaction frictions, and enhances matching efficiency between core firms and their suppliers. Through these channels, it promotes the formation of more efficient supply chain networks and strengthens productivity-enhancing cooperation among firms.
  Using supply chain network data constructed from Chinese A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen between 2014 and 2023, this paper empirically examines the relationship between bank digital transformation, supply chain network restructuring, and firm-level TFP. The results show that FinTech significantly improves firms' productivity, and this positive effect is further strengthened through the optimization of supply chain network structures.
  Mechanism analyses reveal two important channels. Firstly, FinTech alleviates financing constraints faced by small and medium-sized supporting firms, enabling more efficient suppliers to enter and remain within supply chain networks. This improves the quality of network participants and enhances overall coordination efficiency. Secondly, FinTech reduces the guarantee-related costs faced by core enterprises and increases the returns from supplier searching, encouraging core firms to select more suitable suppliers. As a result, stronger specialization, cooperation, and knowledge spillovers emerge within supply chain networks, ultimately improving productivity.
  Further analyses demonstrate significant heterogeneity in the productivity-enhancing effects of FinTech. The effect is stronger among firms with lower network centrality, smaller firms, and high-technology enterprises, suggesting that FinTech plays a more important role in overcoming information disadvantages and improving resource allocation for firms facing greater constraints. Moreover, the positive impact of FinTech is amplified in regions with better business environments and higher levels of digital development, while stronger regional financial regulation may weaken this effect.
  This study contributes to the literature by shifting the perspective from individual firm financing conditions to inter-firm network structures, revealing a new mechanism through which FinTech promotes productivity growth. It highlights that digital financial transformation not only improves firms' internal resource allocation but also reshapes the architecture of production networks. These findings provide new theoretical and empirical evidence for understanding how digital finance can support high-quality economic development.
• Select
  Macroeconomic Expectations and the Transmission of Green Structural Monetary Policy

  Ding Saijie, Huang Tongtong, Zeng Yunhe

  Studies of International Finance. 2026, 0(10): 33-48.

  Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( )   Knowledge map   Save

  Adjustments in microeconomic agents' economic expectations may interfere with the policy's actual effects. Under the dual goals of green economic transition and stabilizing expectations, it is worth studying how the macroeconomic expectations of different microeconomic agents affect the efficiency of green structural monetary policy transmission.
  This paper constructs a multi-sector equilibrium model that incorporates green structural monetary policy and macroeconomic expectations, analyzes the transmission path through which green structural monetary policy promotes green investment via the green credit channel. On this basis, the paper examines the theoretical mechanisms by which the macroeconomic expectations of banks and firms influence the transmission of green structural monetary policy. It then builds bank-level and firm-level panel data models to conduct empirical test.
  The study finds that: Firstly, green structural monetary policy can increase green credit. More optimistic economic expectations among banks strengthen the transmission effect of the green credit channel on the financial supply side. Secondly, green structural monetary policy can promote green investment. More optimistic economic expectations among firms strengthen the green investment effect on the financial demand side. Thirdly, banks' macroeconomic expectations strengthen the green credit channel by enhancing banks' preference for green credit, whereas firms' macroeconomic expectations strengthen the green investment effect through the mechanism of enhancing environmental information transparency.
  Three policy implications are proposed: Firstly, establish mechanisms to incentivize and guide banks' green credit preferences, improve policy communication and expectation guidance, and strengthen the role of banks' macroeconomic expectations in improving the transmission effect of the green credit channel. Secondly, develop a system for managing firms' macroeconomic expectations to remove key bottlenecks in converting green credit into green investment. Thirdly, use environmental information transparency as a bridge to connect the two channels—banks' green credit and firms' green investment—and build a coordination mechanism between expectation management and green structural monetary policy regulation.
  The academic contributions are threefold. Firstly, it incorporates the important policy context of“stabilizing expectations”into a theoretical model, constructing a multi-sector equilibrium model that includes green structural monetary policy and macroeconomic expectations. This provides an extended analytical framework for investigating the transmission mechanisms of green structural monetary policy and the influence of macroeconomic expectations. Secondly, from both the credit supply and demand sides, it provides new evidence on how macroeconomic expectations affect the transmission efficiency of green structural monetary policy, offering a valuable complement to existing theoretical research. Thirdly, the paper identifies two novel mechanisms: the green credit preference mechanism through which banks' economic expectations affect the transmission of green structural monetary policy, and the environmental information transparency mechanism through which firms' macroeconomic expectations affect the transmission.
• Select
  The Coordination of FDI, External Debt and Economic Growth

  An Zidong, Zhou Yujie, Wan Huning

  Studies of International Finance. 2026, 0(10): 49-64.

  Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( )   Knowledge map   Save

  Foreign direct investment（FDI）and external debt are two major sources of external financing for developing economies. Although existing studies typically examine their growth effects separately, the two financing channels are connected through cross-sector technology spillovers. Their relative scale may therefore determine how effectively external capital is converted into economic growth. This paper develops a unified theoretical and empirical framework to examine how FDI and external debt jointly affect economic growth and subsequent FDI inflows.
  The theoretical model divides the economy into foreign-funded firms and domestic firms. FDI expands the capital stock of foreign-funded firms, whereas external debt finances capital accumulation by domestic firms. Technology spillovers from foreign-funded enterprises raise the productivity of domestic firms and connect the two sectors. The model identifies the ratio of the FDI stock to the external debt stock as the key variable governing the marginal growth effects of both financing channels. As this ratio rises, the marginal growth effect of FDI declines, whereas that of external debt increases. The model further predicts a nonlinear relationship between existing FDI stock and subsequent FDI inflows. When the FDI stock is low, additional FDI stock attracts further inflows, while external debt stock has no significant effect. When the FDI stock is high, further accumulation reduces subsequent FDI inflows, whereas a larger external debt stock increases them by strengthening domestic firms' capacity to absorb FDI-related technology spillovers. The model therefore implies that the capital stocks of foreign-funded and domestic firms must remain in an appropriate proportion to support higher long-run growth.
  The empirical analysis uses a panel of 76 low-and lower-middle-income countries from 1974 to 2020. Fixed-effects estimates show that 1 percentage point increase in FDI inflows raises annual GDP growth by 0.087 percentage points, whereas an equivalent increase in external-debt inflows lowers it by 0.038 percentage points. The estimated average coefficient on the interaction term between FDI inflows and external-debt inflows is negative, providing no evidence of unconditional complementarity between contemporaneous FDI and external-debt inflows. The analysis then uses subsample regressions to examine how their marginal effects vary with the FDI-to-external-debt stock ratio. A Bartik IV approach mitigates potential endogeneity arising from reverse causality and omitted country-specific shocks.
  Evidence from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys further shows that total factor productivity is an important mechanism between FDI and external debt. A more balanced external financing structure facilitates the transmission and absorption of FDI-related technology spillovers, improving the efficiency with which external capital contributes to aggregate growth. By explaining economic growth and subsequent FDI inflows, this paper reconciles previously mixed findings on FDI accumulation and external debt. The results indicate that developing countries should manage not only the scale but also the composition of external financing, maintaining an appropriate balance between capital allocated to foreign-funded enterprises and domestic firms to support sustained long-run growth. Developing economies should manage FDI and external debt jointly, maintain a country-specific balance between their stocks, and align debt-financed domestic investment with technology absorption. Financing policies should also strengthen human capital, infrastructure, and institutions while limiting debt-related macro financial risks.
• Select
  Does the Superposition of Financial Cycles between China and the United States Amplify the Liquidity Risk of Commercial Banks?

  Xing Tiancai, Jing Huimin, Guo Kai

  Studies of International Finance. 2026, 0(10): 65-80.

  Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( )   Knowledge map   Save

  The deepening of global financial integration has significantly enhanced the linkage of financial cycles in various countries. As the main driving force of global financial cycle, the prosperity and recession of the US financial cycle can rapidly spill over to the world through cross-border capital flow, asset price and other channels. Meanwhile, China, as an emerging economy actively integrated into the global financial system, the superposition of its financial cycle and the US financial cycle may pose a severe challenge to the liquidity of China's commercial banks. In this context, this paper systematically examines the impact of the Sino-US financial cycle superposition on the liquidity risk of China's commercial banks.
  Using the data of stock price, housing price, credit and macro leverage from 2007 to 2023, this paper constructs financial cycle indicators of China and the US, systematically tests their co-movement, and uses TVAR model to empirically test the relationship between financial cycle superposition and bank liquidity risk. The findings reveal a significant co-movement between the Chinese and US financial cycles, and their superposition exacerbates the liquidity risk of China's commercial banks, particularly during the boom period. At the structural level, the superposition effects of stock price cycles and macro leverage cycles align with the overall financial cycle. In contrast, housing price and credit, as core assets and collateral within the banking system, exhibit a more pronounced risk amplification effect during the recession period, accompanied by higher welfare losses and enhanced shock transmission efficiency. Further analysis shows that higher financial openness and lower foreign exchange reserves can strengthen the above amplification effect.
  Based on the above findings, this paper proposes the following policy recommendations. Firstly, regulatory authorities should strengthen the monitoring and early warning of the US financial cycle to reinforce forward-looking management of liquidity risk. Secondly, commercial banks should optimize their asset-liability structures to enhance liquidity resilience. Thirdly, government authorities should implement macroprudential policies that match the financial opening process, thereby building a buffer against cross-border financial risk transmission. Thirdly, foreign exchange authorities should reinforce the management of foreign exchange reserves, to stabilize bank liquidity pressure.
  The marginal contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in the following three aspects. Firstly, this paper constructs a financial cycle superposition indicator based on asset prices and credit volume, thereby providing empirical data support for future research on financial cycle superposition. Secondly, from the relatively novel perspective of financial cycle superposition, this paper investigates its impact on commercial banks' liquidity risk, enriching the existing research framework on financial cycles. Thirdly, this paper analyzes the moderating effects of financial openness and foreign exchange reserve size on the amplification effect of financial cycle superposition, revealing the critical roles of these two factors in cross-border financial risk transmission, and thus providing a theoretical basis for the formulation of differentiated macroprudential policies. These findings offer actionable policy implications for understanding cross-border financial risk transmission and improving the liquidity risk management framework of China's commercial banks.
• Select
  Corporate Borrower ESG Rating Disagreement and Bank Dual Risk-Taking

  Wang Lei, Li Kuan

  Studies of International Finance. 2026, 0(10): 81-93.

  Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( )   Knowledge map   Save

  Under the policy framework of promoting the“Five Major Areas of Finance”, China's banking sector has gradually shifted credit resources toward sustainable development areas, such as green, low-carbon, and technological innovation. Accordingly, ESG information has been increasingly incorporated into banks' credit approval and risk monitoring systems. However, widespread ESG rating disagreement among corporate borrowers exacerbates information frictions and increases uncertainty about firms' future prospects, making ESG rating disagreement a potential source of bank risk-taking. Notably, banks' active risk-taking willingness and passive risk-taking levels often follow distinct formation logics. Therefore, it is important to examine how corporate borrowers ESG rating disagreement affects banks' dual risk-taking. This study provides implications for improving the ESG rating system and helping banks balance risk prevention with sustainable growth.
  Using bank-year observations constructed from lending relationships between 2015 and 2023 for state-owned commercial banks, nationwide joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to examine the impact of corporate borrowers ESG rating disagreement on banks' dual risk-taking and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that, firstly, ESG rating disagreement among lending customers reduces banks' propensity for active risk-taking but significantly increases passive risk-taking, ultimately leading to higher overall risk-taking. Secondly, ESG rating disagreement reduces banks' active risk-taking through the risk compensation effect and credit selection effect, while increasing passive risk-taking by increasing banks' information screening costs and weakening firms' repayment capacity. Thirdly, excessive banking competition and a poor credit environment amplify the adverse impact of ESG rating disagreement on bank risk-taking. Banks that actively adhere to the principle of prudence can mitigate these adverse effects, whereas stronger liquidity buffers and higher profitability only partially alleviate the impact of ESG rating disagreement on active risk-taking, with limited effects on overall and passive risk-taking.
  This study contributes to the literature in three aspects. Firstly, by focusing on corporate borrowers characteristics, it expands research on the external determinants of bank risk-taking. Secondly, by distinguishing between active and passive risk-taking, it reveals the mechanisms through which corporate borrower ESG rating disagreement affects bank risk-taking. Thirdly, from the perspectives of market environment, industry competition, and bank operations, it identifies the boundary conditions under which ESG rating disagreement influences bank risk-taking.
  Based on these findings, this study provides several policy implications. Firstly, regulators should accelerate the development of a standardized ESG rating system and improve the information environment of capital markets to facilitate banks' credit decisions. Secondly, while incorporating external ESG ratings into lending decisions, banks should strengthen independent risk identification capabilities, maintain adequate provisioning coverage and liquidity buffers, and avoid weakening risk constraints due to excessive pursuit of profitability. Thirdly, policymakers should improve the market credit environment and promote orderly competition in the banking sector.
• Select
  Bilateral Relations and RMB Currency Anchor Effect

  Meng Hao, Ren Shuo, Tang Yuxin

  Studies of International Finance. 2026, 0(10): 94-106.

  Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( )   Knowledge map   Save

  Against the backdrop of China's steady advancement toward high-level opening-up, bilateral relations have evolved from external environmental factors into a critical institutional force reshaping the global monetary landscape and strengthening the RMB's role as an international currency anchor. This study investigates the impact and underlying mechanisms of bilateral relations on the RMB anchor effect by employing a Heckman two-stage model based on a global sample of 126 countries. The research findings are as follows. Firstly, enhanced bilateral relations not only increase the probability that sample economies adopt the RMB as an anchor currency, but also substantially raise the weight of the RMB in their currency baskets, thereby reinforcing its currency anchor effect. Secondly, the positive development of bilateral relations facilitates the realization of the RMB anchor effect by increasing bilateral trade shares, enhancing China's investment embeddedness, and expanding the scale of RMB currency swap arrangements. Thirdly, the effectiveness of bilateral relations in promoting the RMB anchor effect exhibits significant heterogeneity, depending on direction of political mutual trust, host-country income levels, cultural differences, and geographical distance. The influence of bilateral relations on both RMB adoption and anchoring intensity is more pronounced among economies that actively initiate engagement with China, low-and middle-income countries, and countries geographically closer to China. In countries characterized by smaller cultural differences, bilateral relations exert a stronger influence on the choice of the RMB as an anchor currency. Conversely, in countries with greater cultural distance, although bilateral relations have a relatively limited effect on the initial adoption decision, once the RMB is adopted, closer bilateral relations activate a trust-compensation mechanism that significantly contributes to increasing the RMB's anchoring weight.
  The potential marginal contributions of this study are as follows. Firstly, by integrating political and non-political events into a unified analytical framework, the paper comprehensively measures bilateral relations thereby enriching existing methods for assessing bilateral relations. Secondly, previous studies on the determinants of currency anchor effects have primarily focused on economic and financial fundamentals as well as external shocks, this study identifies bilateral relations as an important institutional determinant influencing both the breadth and depth of the RMB anchor effect, thereby extending the literature on the drivers of monetary anchor effects. Thirdly, this study further identifies trade relations, investment intensity, and monetary cooperation as key transmission mechanisms through which bilateral relations shape the effectiveness of the RMB anchor effect.
  In order to accelerate the process of RMB internationalization, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations. Firstly, policymakers should continuously strengthen global partnerships and deepen bilateral and multilateral cooperation and dialogue mechanisms. Secondly, efforts should be made to optimize bilateral trade and investment cooperation frameworks, strengthen the foundation for cross-border RMB usage. Thirdly, improving currency cooperation arrangements and RMB swap mechanisms, and accelerating the upgrading of the Cross-border Interbank Payment System（CIPS）. Fourthly, strengthen infrastructure for RMB internationalization, insist orderly opening of the capital account, and continuously refine the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism thus reinforcing the support system for its anchor effect.
• Select
  Can Targeted Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts Promote the Expansion of Real Investment by Micro and Small Enterprises?

  Tang Huoqing, Zhang Jinan, Ma Yue

  Studies of International Finance. 2026, 0(10): 107-118.

  Abstract ( ) Download PDF ( )   Knowledge map   Save

  Supporting micro and small enterprises（MSEs）is essential for strengthening the real economy, stabilizing employment, and promoting high-quality development. Since 2014, the People's Bank of China has implemented targeted reserve requirement ratio（RRR）cuts to encourage financial institutions to increase lending to MSEs and other priority sectors. Although existing studies generally find that this policy improves MSEs' access to bank credit, greater credit availability does not necessarily lead to greater real investment. Firms may instead use additional loans to replenish liquidity, repay trade credit, or acquire financial assets. This study examines whether targeted RRR cuts ultimately promote the expansion of real investment by MSEs and investigates the macroeconomic and firm-level conditions that shape policy effectiveness.
  Using data on firms listed on the National Equities Exchange and Quotations（NEEQ）in China from 2014 to 2025, this study employs a fuzzy regression discontinuity design based on the revenue thresholds used to classify MSEs across different industries. The empirical analysis identifies the causal effect of targeted RRR cuts on MSEs' real investment expansion.
  The findings reveal that the effectiveness of targeted RRR cuts is subject to constraints at both the macro and micro levels. At the macro level, the effect of targeted RRR cuts exhibits significant time variation. During 2014-2017, when statutory RRRs were relatively high and banks faced tighter reserve constraints, targeted RRR cuts significantly improved MSEs' access to loans and promoted the expansion of real investment. In contrast, during 2018-2025, as broad-based RRR cuts eased reserve constraints and banking-system liquidity became more abundant, the investment-stimulating effect of targeted RRR cuts was no longer statistically significant. Regional evidence reinforces this finding: the policy effect is stronger in cities with higher loan-to-deposit ratios and in regions with less intense banking competition.
  At the micro level, firm-level liquidity reserves constitute another important constraint. Targeted RRR cuts significantly promote the expansion of real investment among MSEs with relatively high financial asset holdings ratios or relatively low reliance on trade credit. These firms possess stronger internal liquidity buffers or greater capacity to obtain trade credit in the future, enabling them to undertake irreversible and long-term real investment after receiving additional bank loans. Mechanism tests further indicate that the policy operates primarily through a quantity channel that expands loan availability, rather than through a price channel that lowers financing costs.
  These findings suggest that structural monetary policy instruments should be designed and evaluated in conjunction with the aggregate monetary environment. Targeted RRR cuts are more effective when reserve liquidity is relatively scarce, but their marginal effectiveness declines as reserve constraints loosen. Under relatively abundant liquidity conditions, policymakers should place greater emphasis on price-based structural instruments, strengthen liquidity support and risk-sharing mechanisms for MSEs, and promote a more inclusive financial service network.