12 April 2025, Volume 0 Issue 4
    

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  • Sun Zao, Cao Yuanyuan
    Studies of International Finance. 2025, 0(4): 3-14.
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    With the rapid advancement of the new technological revolution and industrial transformation, artificial intelligence(AI)technology is driving the formation and development of new quality productive forces through revolutionary production methods, becoming a strong support for building a modern industrial system. As a critical engine of contemporary technological revolutions, AI not only enhances production efficiency but also restructures industrial chain layouts. Following the analytical frameworks of Marxist political economy, Schumpeterian innovation theory, and endogenous growth theory, this article analyzes the practical paths of cultivating new quality productive forces and building a modern industrial system through AI, with particularly emphasizing on paradigm-shifting technological breakthroughs.
    From the perspective of historical evolution, each industrial revolution has been characterized by transformative technological breakthroughs that catalyze productivity leaps and spur the development of emerging industries. As a key factor input, AI technology facilitates the optimization of production factors by reshaping employment structures and enhancing human capital, while also driving substantial improvements in productivity through knowledge accumulation and R&D innovation. Accordingly, AI technology empowers the transformation of means of production, fundamentally altering traditional production processes and methods. In this regard, AI serves as a powerful driver for the formation of new quality productive forces and the construction of a modern industrial system.
    From the perspective of technological innovation diffusion, a defining characteristic of technological transformation lies in product and process innovation. On the one hand, AI enhances new quality productive forces and facilitates the comprehensive upgrading of industrial systems by reducing coordination costs, improving operational efficiency, and optimizing the entire manufacturing process through full-cycle process innovation. On the other hand, AI shortens product development cycles and accelerates knowledge production through predictive analytics and deep learning, thereby enhancing product innovation speed and enabling precise market targeting. Overall, through its internally driven innovation effects, AI serves as a core driving force for fostering new quality productive forces and advancing the modernization of industrial structures by accelerating product innovation and improving the process quality.
    From the perspective of industrial system development pathways, new technologies drive the emergence of new sectors and economic growth only when they establish linkages within the industrial chain, facilitating their diffusion into traditional industries and triggering qualitative transformations in productivity. When leading firms adopt AI technology, they exert pressure on upstream suppliers to optimize production processes while fostering increased R&D investment through knowledge spillover effects, thereby enhancing innovation capabilities across the supply chain. Simultaneously, as leading firms leverage AI for intelligent manufacturing and product upgrades, downstream client firms experience peer effects that incentivize them to optimize their existing business models to better align with market demands. Accordingly, AI can drive systematic integration of innovation across the entire industry chain, promote a qualitative leap of productivity, and become a key path to building a modern industrial system.
    This article carries profound policy implications. While promoting the development of AI, the government should not only focus on isolated productive applications but also strive to foster the deep integration of AI technology across the entire production sector. Active guidance is needed to encourage the integration of AI technology with traditional manufacturing industries, as well as to foster its innovative development in strategic emerging industries. The implementation of the“AI+”initiative can optimize the combination of production factors and lead the cultivation and development of new quality productive forces. Additionally, there is a need to further improve innovation incentive mechanisms, promoting firms and research institutions to apply AI technology in product design and process simulation. This will enhance product innovation speed and process improvement quality, while also accelerating the transformation and commercialization of technological achievements. Moreover, building an innovation ecosystem that spans across industries and fields is essential, enabling cross-sector and cross-domain collaborative innovation. By establishing a comprehensive innovation ecosystem across the entire industrial chain, new quality productive forces will be fostered, playing a critical role in advancing the construction of a modern industrial system.
  • Wang Yanan, Lin Ruicong, Xu Feng
    Studies of International Finance. 2025, 0(4): 15-26.
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    As a“transmitter”of monetary policy, the reform of the Loan Prime Rate(LPR)system is of great significance for improving the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, reducing financing costs for enterprises, and increasing support for the real economy. According to the existing research, studies on LPR reform focuses on whether LPR reform effectively improves the transmission efficiency of monetary policy, with few literatures addressing the link between LPR reform and the real economy or employment. The“stable employment”policy has become the focus of national attention, the impact of LPR reform on the real economy and employment offers a new perspective for the study of LPR reform.
    The aim of this paper is to study the impact of LPR reform on the real economy and employment through policy simulation. Based on national economic accounting data such as national input-output data and capital flow data in 2020, the paper constructs a 9-sector financial CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)model that includes the capital market, illustrating the financing channels among residents, non-financial enterprises, traditional financial institutions, government, and foreign sectors. The study simulates and evaluates the impact of LPR reform on Gross Domestic Product(GDP), manufacturing output, currency liquidity, and employment levels across various manufacturing industries, examining the role of LPR reform in promoting the development of the real economy.
    The results show that, firstly, in the context of LPR reform, a reduction in loan interest rates can promote GDP growth and manufacturing output while enhancing currency liquidity. Secondly, As LPR reform progresses, the labor levels in manufacturing and high-tech industries generally show a upward trend with the decrease in loan interest rates, with different manufacturing industries exhibiting varying sensitivities to the impact of LPR reform. Thirdly, LPR reform can help achieve the policy goals related to supporting the real economy and stabilizing employment.
  • Zong Liang, Hao Yi, Wu Zewen
    Studies of International Finance. 2025, 0(4): 27-37.
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    This paper analyzes the scenarios and conditions under which Say's Law holds true from an expanded perspective based on the multiplier-accelerator model, and also conducts empirical analysis using data from China and the United States. The findings are as follows: First, Say's Law holds true under specific conditions. When the economy operates within a cyclical range and the amplitude approaches zero over time, Say's Law remains valid. Second, the conditions for the validity of Say's Law and Keynes's Law are complementary, with each complementing the other. Third, empirical testing using data from China and the United States shows that, under specific conditions, Say's Law holds nearly true in some instances, demonstrating its explanatory power in real-world scenarios. In the new context, the connotation of Say's Law is enriched. The findings of this paper offer valuable insights for China to better coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and the deepening of supply-side structural reform, fostering a virtuous circle in the national economy.
  • Zhai Guangyu, Ma Zhenyao, Li Yubing
    Studies of International Finance. 2025, 0(4): 38-49.
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    Based on prolonged accommodative monetary policies, low interest rates, and the gradual erosion of demographic dividends in major global economies, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of demographic dividends on the asymmetry of monetary policy intensity using international panel data.
    The study finds that, the demographic dividend is a key factor contributing to the asymmetry in the intensity of monetary policy. Specifically, it's manifested as an excessive adjustment intensity of expansionary monetary policy and insufficient adjustment intensity of contractionary monetary policy. This conclusion remains robust even after addressing the endogeneity problems using Time-Varying DID and instrumental variable methods, as well as a series of robustness tests.
    Mechanism analysis reveals that, the demographic dividend enhances the effectiveness of monetary policy and contributes to the asymmetry of monetary policy intensity under the influence of growth targets; due to the positive moderation effects of technological progress, international trade, and financial development, the demographic dividend in developed countries has a stronger promoting effect on the asymmetry of monetary policy intensity compared to developing countries.
    Based on these conclusions, it is recommended that the monetary authorities fully consider the impact of population factors when formulating monetary policy to better achieve its targets.
  • Zhang Xiaoyu, Zhang Qixin
    Studies of International Finance. 2025, 0(4): 50-61.
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    Smooth cross-border capital flows are crucial for maintaining long-term stable economic and financial development. In the face of increasing uncertainties, policymakers must critically evaluate the risks posed by abnormal capital flows resulting from financial globalization. Furthermore, a comprehensive analysis of the efficacy of macroprudential policy in regulating cross-border capital flows is essential.
    This paper develops the“capital flows at risk”model, integrates the global financial cycle, cross-border capital flows and macroprudential policy into a unified analytical framework. Based on quantile regression, the paper explores the driving factors of China's capital flows, and quantifies the upside and downside risk characteristics of capital flows based on stable distribution fitting.
    The results show that the volatility of global financial cycle has a negative impact on cross-border capital flows, with the negative correlation particularly obvious in the tail region. Cross-border capital flows face tail risk pressure, and capital outflows have emerged. The implementation effect of macroprudential policy shows dynamic volatility. In the short term, policies can significantly reduce the sensitivity of cross-border capital flows to the global financial cycle, while in the medium and long term, the mitigating effect of policies weakens.
    To enhance financial stability, the central bank should strengthen the monitoring and tracking of the scale and direction of cross-border capital flows, while gradually improving the macroprudential policy framework to ensure the stable operation of financial markets.
  • Shao Wenbo, Zheng Haizhen, Ni Zhongxin
    Studies of International Finance. 2025, 0(4): 62-73.
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    This article examines the impact of shadow banking regulatory policies and the transformation of bank asset management net worth on bond credit spreads. Using the two key time points of the implementation of the New Asset Management Regulations, a difference-in-difference model was constructed for empirical testing. The study found that:firstly, tightening the shadow banking regulatory policy will lead to a narrowing of the credit spread for high rated credit bonds.Secondly, from a mechanistic perspective, after the release of the New Asset Management Regulations, bank asset management shifted from the“fund pool asset pool”model to independent account opening and accounting for individual products. This shift resulted in a decreased risk appetite, with banks preferring high rated and long-term credit bonds in bond investment, leading to a reduction in the credit spread of these bonds.Thirdly, the impact of shadow banking regulatory policies on credit spreads exhibits time-varying characteristics. After the transition period of the“New Asset Management Regulations”, the valuation method of bank asset management investment bond has changed from amortized cost method to market value method, strengthening the risk aversion awareness of bank asset management managers: during a bond bear market, they will sell long-term, high rated credit bonds, expand the credit spread of these bonds and increase market volatility; conversely, in a bond bull market, they will increase the allocation of short-term, high rated credit bonds, leading to a narrowing of the credit spread on these bonds.Fourthly, heterogeneity analysis found that the above effects show significant differences among bond issuers and trading venues. This study provides a new perspective for explaining the volatility of China's bond market in recent years, and provides an important reference for understanding and analyzing the financial management business and institutional behavior of commercial banks.
  • Wu Yunlang, Yuan Meng, Huang Jun, Peng Jianfei
    Studies of International Finance. 2025, 0(4): 74-84.
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    In the era of digital economy, digital transformation has profoundly changed the production methods, business models and networks of firms. Against the backdrop of the two-way opening up of China's capital market and the growing proportion of direct financing, this paper constructs a sample of offshore bond issuances by Chinese listed companies from 2007 to 2022. The objective is to determine whether the digital transformation can reduce the initial bond yield spreads in offshore bond issuances. The study finds that the digital transformation of enterprises has a risk mitigation effect. By gaining market attention and improving internal control quality, it significantly reduces the yield spreads of offshore bond issuances. Cross-sectional analyses show that the risk mitigation effect of the digital transformation is most pronounced in the samples with higher risk. When the issuer is non-state-owned, has a relatively low rating, the management has no overseas experience, there are few or no foreign underwriters participating in the underwriting syndicate, or the credit rating is relatively low or not cross-listed, digital transformation has a more pronounce effect in reducing the initial yield spreads of the offshore bond. The research extends the literature on the determinants of bond credit spread, deepens the understanding on the consequence of firms' digital transformation and sheds light on offshore bond issuance and digital economy.
  • Yu Chunhai, Xu Qian, Sun Puyang, Zhang Zimeng
    Studies of International Finance. 2025, 0(4): 85-96.
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    Global digital services trade is expanding rapidly, creating significant competitive pressure on Chinese companies. This article uses the company data from China's tax survey for the first time to more accurately identify the information of companies“engaged in digital services trade”in China and matches it with the import data. The results show that international digital services have had significant competitive effects, leading to a notable increase in the import of equipment related to digital service trade. Additionally, companies with high R&D investment tend to import fewer digital equipment products, demonstrating a significant relationship between imports and R&D. The substitution effect is observed, where R&D constraints and R&D substitution have an inverse relationship. This indicates that R&D constraints drive companies to choose equipment imports as a substitute, and an increase in R&D costs significantly weakens the substitution effect .
    This article identifies, for the first time, specific companies“engaged in digital trade”and uses this data to examine the decision-making of service companies facing import competition, providing a more detailed and accurate microeconomic basis for the study of digital services trade.