促进房地产市场平稳发展已成为我国防范化解重大经济金融风险工作的重要任务。本文以2009—2022年国内43家上市地方性商业银行为研究样本,从预售交易比例与预售交易门槛两个方面度量各城市商品房预售交易水平,探究商业银行所在城市的商品房预售交易对其信用风险承担的影响。研究发现：商品房预售交易会提高房地产企业贷款、建筑企业贷款与个人购房贷款的违约率,导致当地银行的风险承担水平上升。该结论经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。在影响渠道方面,商品房预售交易通过提高房地产企业杠杆率、恶化建筑企业资金周转率以及降低期房竣工率来影响信贷资产质量,提升银行风险承担水平。进一步分析发现：银行加强对房地产企业信贷业务的风险管理可以有效缓解商品房预售交易对其风险承担的不利影响。同时,政府主导的预售资金提取监管与合理的房价水平均能够减弱商品房预售交易带来的信用风险。本文的研究结论可为商业银行与监管部门防范房地产金融风险提供参考。

Since 2020, debt defaults among Chinese real estate enterprises have become increasingly frequent, with a high number of bankrupcies observed. Some large real estate enterprises have been facing serious liquidity and debt default crisis. In this context, the steady development of the real estate market has become an important issue in preventing economic and financial risks in China.
Using a sample of 43 Chinese listed local banks from 2009 to 2022, this paper measures the level of real estate pre-sale in city with transaction proportion and transaction threshold, and then empirically examines the impact of the pre-sale of commercial housing on banks' credit risk-taking. It is found that the real estate pre-sale transaction significantly increases the default risk of bank loan assets, involving commercial real estate loans, commercial construction loans and residential mortgage loans, which leads to the higher risk-taking of commercial banks. This conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. The channel analysis suggests that the real estate pre-sale transaction has negative impacts on the loan assets' quality by increasing the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises, decreasing the turnover ratio of construction enterprises and decreasing the completion ratio of housing. Furthermore, this paper finds that the risk management of banks on commercial real estate loans can effectively alleviate the negative impact of the real estate pre-sale transaction on banks' risk-taking. Moreover, the regulatory on pre-sale funds conducted by government and reasonable housing price can also effectively alleviate this negative impact.
The conclusions are of great practical value for preventing real estate financial risk. Firstly, commercial banks should attach great importance to restraint on risk exposure and asset quality management involving real estate sector. Secondly, the government should strengthen the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds and ensure the safety of pre-sale funds. Thirdly, the regulator should maintain house price within a reasonable range.