本文从理论角度构建了市场竞争、金融创新与系统性风险的统一分析框架,发现金融创新与系统性风险之间存在依赖于市场竞争度的非线性关系。基于此,本文采用门限回归模型对上市金融机构进行实证分析,发现低竞争阶段金融创新会提高系统性风险,中等竞争阶段则会产生一定的风险抑制作用,而随着竞争达到较高阶段,银行业创新与证券业创新带来的风险效应出现分化。为了揭示背后的风险作用机制,本文运用文本分析法构建了金融创新在产品、服务、技术三个维度的子指标,进一步实证发现证券业的风险抑制效应源于产品、服务与技术三者的共同作用,而银行业系统性风险的积聚与影子银行产品的复杂嵌套及金融科技的过度运用有关。因此,本文认为,各金融机构应主动结合自身优势,稳步推进产品、服务方面的创新,同时注意技术的引入应与自身发展条件相适应,强调技术风险的防范。
Abstract
With the continuous deepening of financial supply-side structural reform in China, the market competition within the financial industry is intensifying. Financial institutions are proactively exploring various innovations to enhance profitability. It is crucial not to overlook the potential for these innovations to introduce systemic risk.
This paper constructs a unified analysis framework for market competition, financial innovation and systemic risk from a theoretical perspective. A key discovery is the nonlinear relationship between financial innovation and systemic risk, contingent on the degree of market competition. Building on this, the paper utilizes a threshold regression model to conduct an empirical analysis of listed financial institutions. Results show that, during the low-competition stage, financial innovation increases systemic risk; in the medium competition stage, financial innovation inhibits systemic risk; in the high-competition stage, the effects of financial innovation on systemic risk show noticeable distinctions between banks and securities. To further unveil the underlying risk mechanism, this paper uses the textual analysis method to construct sub-indicators of financial innovation in three dimensions: product, service and technology. It is found that the risk inhibition effect of innovation in the securities industry originates from the positive role of product, service and technology, while innovation in the banking industry has contributed to the accumulation of systemic risk due to the invention of complex and integrated financial products and the excessive use of financial technology.
Therefore, this paper suggests that financial institutions should steadily promote products and services innovation based on their own strengths. Additionally, the adoption of emerging technologies should be based on their capabilities and conditions, with attention paid to the prevention of technological risks. As for government regulation, regulators should encourage healthy competition in the financial sector, and promote moderate regulation of financial innovation.
关键词
市场竞争 /
金融创新 /
系统性风险
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Key words
Market Competition /
Financial Innovation /
Systemic Risk
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中图分类号：
F832
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脚注
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基金
*本文获国家自然科学基金面上项目“深度学习驱动的基本面量化投资研究”（71971164）资助
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