本文通过构建开放经济条件下的动态宏观模型,基于国际贸易视角探究在面临国际供应链及需求链断链冲击时,能够保障本国产业链供应链安全的措施。具体地,假设经济主体对国内外偏好可变,且受政府在供需两侧的引导及调节政策影响;提出计算内循环比例的方法、测算内循环比例并引入宏观调控,构建以“双循环”为目标的经济模型。针对外部供应链及需求链冲击对本国经济的影响,本文通过对比偏好调节与其他措施的作用效果发现：偏好调节方式优于其他调节,可在缓解本国经济受外部冲击的同时,推动内循环比例上升,并且社会福利损失最小。另外,将内循环比例引入偏好调节能够减小仅基于风险敏感度的偏好调节导致的顺周期性。为更好地保障我国产业链供应链安全,应探索将偏好调节纳入政策调控工具,积极考虑将断链风险及内循环比例作为决策依据,并在鼓励科技创新的同时建立健全生产补贴及奖励政策,促进构建“双循环”新发展格局。
Abstract
Trade protectionism and various sanctions present challenges to the smooth operation of industrial and supply chains. This paper categorizes these challenges from a risk perspective into supply chain and demand chain disruption, and examines policies and measures to mitigate disruption risks and ensure the security of industrial and supply chains.
Building on existing research on limited attention and rational inattention, this paper proposes a preference adjustment approach. Specifically, under open economy conditions, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium（DSGE）model is constructed, assuming that economic agents have variable preferences domestically and internationally, influenced by government policies that guide and adjust both supply and demand. Additionally, this paper proposes a method for calculating the inner circulation ratio, integrating it into macroeconomic regulation to support research on establishing the dual circulation new development pattern. The effects of preference adjustment and other policies are compared in response to external shocks that affect the domestic economy's supply and demand chains.
This study utilizes data from 102 quarters, covering China and the United States from Q2 1995 to Q3 2020. The model results indicate that risk-sensitive preference adjustment is superior to other adjustment methods. It not only mitigates the impact of external shocks on economic variables but also increases the inner circulation ratio with minimal welfare loss. Furthermore, Integrating the inner circulation ratio into preference adjustment further alleviates the procyclicality associated with preference adjustments based solely on risk sensitivity.
To better ensure the security of industrial and supply chains, this paper suggests exploring the integration of preference adjustment into policy control tools, actively considering chain disruption risks and the inner circulation ratio as relevant decision-making factors. Additionally, while promoting technological innovation, it is essential to establish and improve production subsidy and incentive policies to advance the construction of a new development pattern.
关键词
偏好调节 /
产业链供应链安全 /
供应链断链 /
需求链断链 /
内循环比例
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Key words
Preference Adjustment /
Industrial Chain and Supply Chain Security /
Supply Chain Disruption /
Demand Chain Disruption /
Inner Circulation Ratio
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中图分类号：
F752
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基金
*本文获国家自然科学基金专项项目“公共数据开放利用与授权运营理论与制度设计”（72342010）、北京市习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心项目“有效防范化解财政、金融领域重大风险研究”（23LLYJC124）资助
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