金融安全视角下中国金融高水平开放研究

蔡浩, 蓝发钦

国际金融研究 ›› 2024 ›› Issue (11) : 16-27.

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国际金融研究 ›› 2024 ›› Issue (11) : 16-27.
金融理论与政策

金融安全视角下中国金融高水平开放研究

  • 蔡浩, 蓝发钦
作者信息 +

Research on China's High Level Financial Openness from the Perspective of Financial Security

  • Cai Hao, Lan Faqin
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

金融开放作为中国式现代化的现实选择,如何在金融开放过程中既能匹配中国经济发展,又能保证金融安全,是学术界和政府部门一直关注的问题。本文首先梳理金融开放影响金融安全的微观机理,结合中国实际发展情况进行理论探讨;其次,科学选取指标并用因子分析法构建中国金融安全指数,创设基于资本存量的中国金融实际开放度指标体系;最后,应用TVP-VAR模型实证检验金融开放影响中国金融安全的总效应和异质性效应。研究发现,总体上金融开放对金融安全是有益的,而热钱的流入对金融安全的影响始终负面。方向上,本国对外投资的开放对金融安全的正面影响相当明显,外资流入虽然能够助力经济增长,但也会对金融安全产生一些负面影响,尤其是债务资本的流入。本文提出了中国金融高水平开放的策略建议。

Abstract

Financial openness, as an irreversible choice in China's modernization process, has long been a concern for both academics and policymakers in terms of how it can align with China's economic development while ensuring financial security. This study extends the existing research by examining the various impacts of financial openness on financial security from a financial security perspective.
This paper reviews the micro-mechanisms through which financial openness affects financial security and systematically analyzes its positive and negative impacts from multiple perspectives, while also engaging in theoretical discussions based on China's actual development situation. To empirically support this discussion, the paper selects 15 original indicators that reflect the characteristics of the times and are representative of financial security. These indicators are scientifically processed, and a financial security index for China is constructed using factor analysis, followed by an assessment of the index. Subsequently, the paper constructs an indicator system for China's actual financial openness based on capital stock and uses the TVP-VAR model to empirically test the overall and heterogeneous effects of financial openness on China's financial security.
The study finds that, overall, financial openness is beneficial to financial security, while the inflow of hot money consistently has a negative impact on financial security. In terms of the direction, the opening of outbound investments has a notably positive effect on financial security. Although foreign capital inflows can contribute to economic growth, they also have varying levels of impact on financial security. Among these, foreign direct investment tends to have a positive impact, foreign debt investment has a negative impact, and equity investment, traditionally considered the most volatile, has a neutral impact.
Finally, the paper offers strategic recommendations for further high-level financial openness in China. In the long term, there should be continued guidance of foreign capital inflows, encouragement of long-term direct investment, restrictions on short-term debt investment, and expansion of channels and scale for outbound investments by domestic enterprises and residents. In the short term, efforts should be focused on expanding cross-border securities investments in RMB and proactively establishing onshore and offshore RMB financial centers.

关键词

金融开放 / 金融安全 / 对外投资 / TVP-VAR模型

Key words

Financial Openness / Financial Security / Oversea Investment / TVP-VAR Model

引用本文

导出引用
蔡浩, 蓝发钦. 金融安全视角下中国金融高水平开放研究[J]. 国际金融研究, 2024(11): 16-27
Cai Hao, Lan Faqin. Research on China's High Level Financial Openness from the Perspective of Financial Security[J]. Studies of International Finance, 2024(11): 16-27
中图分类号: F831   

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