2022年2月,乌克兰危机的爆发将新冠疫情后全球高通胀做实。截至2022年年底,通胀仍高企,并呈现出驱动因素复杂化、跨经济体间通胀结构差异化等特征。以美联储为首的主要发达经济体央行寄希望于通过激进的、步调一致的加息遏制通胀。但本文认为：新冠疫情后央行面临的局面已发生质的改变,它们的货币政策操作必须在保增长、控通胀、防债务危机三个维度上进行权衡,这将大幅限制其加息空间,也将使其通过加息抑制通胀的效果大打折扣,央行货币政策进退维谷。从中长期来看,乌克兰危机、地缘政治博弈、碳中和与绿色转型进程加速、人口老龄化与劳动力市场结构改变、生产率增速下降趋势延续等因素将增加全球供给扰动风险,使总需求难以大幅收缩,加之总供给持续扩张,导致全球通胀高位运行成为新常态。面对全球通胀高企,经济陷入以滞胀为核心特征的高通胀、高利率、高债务和低增长格局的情况下,中国应加快“双循环”与国内大市场建设,保障能源与供应链安全,增加绿色投资,防范输入性通胀风险和系统性金融风险。
Abstract
The eruption of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated high inflation globally. By the end of 2022, global inflation remains stubbornly high, characterized by complex driving factors and varying inflation structures in different economies. Major central banks in the world, led by the Federal Reserve, have initiated a radical and coherent process of raising interest rates to curb inflation. Nonetheless, this paper argues that the post-pandemic situation faced by the central banks has changed fundamentally. Central banks must balance their roles in ensuring growth, controlling inflation, and preventing a debt crisis while implementing monetary policies, which limit the amplitude of rate increases and make it difficult to contain inflation effectively, putting central banks' monetary policy in an awkward situation. In the medium to long term, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, geopolitical competition and the accelerated transition to the carbon-neutral green economy, along with the aging population and changing labor market structure, declining productivity growth and other factors, are expected to increase the risk of global supply disruption, limit the expansion of aggregate supply and make it difficult for aggregate demand to contract substantially. In addition, it will make high global inflation a new normal. As global inflation remains stubbornly high, leading to a situation known as stagflation, characterized by “three highs and one low” (high inflation, high interest rate, high debt level and low economic growth), China should prevent imported inflation risk and systemic financial risks by accelerating its “dual circulation” and construction of the unified domestic market, ensuring energy and supply chain security, and increasing its investment in green growth.
关键词
结构性通货膨胀 /
债务 /
经济增长 /
货币政策
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Key words
Structural Inflation /
Debt /
Economic Growth /
Monetary Policy
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中图分类号：
F821
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