本文基于需求端和供给端的分析框架,考察出口贸易政策不确定性影响企业技术复杂度的内在机理和作用效果。研究发现：出口贸易政策不确定性下降显著提升了中国企业的技术复杂度,其机制在于出口贸易政策不确定性下降能够提升本土企业的市场需求规模、优化国内行业资源的配置效率,从而激励企业研发更为复杂和更高门槛的技术,提升技术复杂度。此外,出口贸易政策不确定性在影响企业技术复杂度过程中还存在产权异质性、规模异质性和行业异质性。本文研究结论为在开放性视角下探寻加快中国企业关键核心技术突破、提高技术创新质量和竞争力的策略提供有益启示。

In recent years, the phenomenon that China's key core technologies have been "stuck" has become increasingly apparent. How to more effectively improve the technological innovation quality of Chinese enterprises and speed up the R&D of complex technologies has important practical significance for building a new development paradigm with the domestic market as the mainstay and realizing the country's self-improvement in science and technology.
This paper aims to analyze the impact on the technological complexity of Chinese enterprises from the perspective of export trade policy uncertainty. Based on the analysis framework of demand side and supply side, this paper investigates the impact mechanism of the export trade policy uncertainty on the technological complexity of enterprises, and then empirically tests the effect by using the "quasi natural experiment" authorized by the PNTR of the United States after China's entry into WTO and the patented technological complexity data of industrial enterprise.
It is found that the decline of export trade policy uncertainty significantly improves the technological complexity of enterprises. That is, the decline of export trade policy uncertainty can improve the market demand scale of domestic enterprises and optimize the allocation efficiency of domestic industry resources, so as to encourage enterprises to develop more complex and higher technology threshold technologies, improve technological complexity, and form market demand effect and resource allocation effect. In addition, the uncertainty of export trade policy also has typical property right characteristics, scale characteristics and industry characteristics in the process of affecting the technological complexity of enterprises.
Against the background of the resurgence of world trade protectionism and the global spread of COVID-19, the uncertainty of international economic development is rising. Studying the impact of export trade policy uncertainty on the technological complexity of enterprises still has good policy meaning and guiding significance. The conclusions of this paper not only help to further deepen the research system of the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and technological innovation, but also provide useful enlightenment for Chinese enterprises to accelerate the breakthrough of key core technologies, improving the quality and competitiveness of technological innovation from an open perspective.