居民消费作为经济发展的重要引擎,在中国经济增长中起到愈发重要的作用。以新冠肺炎疫情冲击为例,本文基于支付宝在地级市层面的日度消费数据和一套线上问卷调查数据,探讨了外生冲击对居民消费的影响及金融参与度在其中发挥的作用。本文发现,在疫情冲击后24天内,居民消费平均下降25%,疫情所造成的消费损失累计约为1万亿元,而金融参与度会显著缓解外生冲击对消费的负面作用。本文运用移动支付数据对疫情期间短期消费受损情况进行估算和分析,分析视角与研究结论对于提振消费、促进经济稳定发展具有现实意义。
Abstract
As the most important engine of economic development, household consumption plays an increasingly important role in China's economic growth. Taking the Covid-19, a major public health emergency, as an example, this paper explores the impact of an exogenous negative shock on resident consumption and the role played by financial participation.
Using the daily mobile payment data provided by Alipay which covers both online and offline consumption of households, this paper estimates the short-term losses caused by Covid-19 around Chinese Lunar New Year. The estimator based on the difference-in-differences method shows that resident consumption declined by 25% during the first 24 days after the impact of the epidemic. The cumulative consumption loss caused by the epidemic is about 1 trillion yuan. Among them, offline service industries such as airline travel service, catering service and healthcare have endured the hardest hit.
However, the financial participation of residents can significantly alleviate the negative effect of exogenous shocks on consumption. In the city level, the higher the financial participation, the smaller the consumption shocked by the epidemic. The results hold in both panel regression and cross-sectional regression. What's more, there exits heterogeneities among different cities. The higher the level of consumption, the greater effect of financial participation. To further proof our conclusion, we also exploit an online survey which participated by more than 24 thousand respondents. Results show that compared with people who do not participate in the financial investment, those participate in financial investment would have less decrease of consumption during the pandemic in the individual level.
Our paper is the first one using the online and offline mobile payment data to estimate and analysis the short-term con-sumption shock during the epidemic period, the research perspective and results have great policy implications. Specifically, the authorities should make greater use of big data such as mobile payment and location-based services （LBS） to assist their economic decisions. Besides, they should promote the organic integration of online and offline consumption, which can further foster and strengthen the consumption. Last but not least, improving residents' financial education and promoting their financial participation are also encouraged.
关键词
重大突发公共卫生事件 /
金融参与度 /
居民消费 /
新冠肺炎疫情
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Key words
Major Public Health Emergency /
Financial Participation /
Household Consumption /
COVID-19 Pandemic
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中图分类号：
F832
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基金
*本文获国家自然科学基金青年项目“股权质押的价值创造与潜在风险：基于大股东创业及其风险投资行为的研究”（72102247）、国家自然科学基金面上项目“金融文本大数据与银行业系统性风险：指标构建、应用与评估整合”（72173144）、国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国资产证券化研究：基于微观信用风险定价和宏观金融结构调整的视角”（71772004）、国家社会科学基金青年项目“‘一带一路’倡议下的金融科技对外投资发展评价及策略优化研究”（20CJY045）、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（2021TC027）、中央财经大学金融学院庆祝中国共产党成立100 周年专项课题、中央财经大学科研创新团队支持计划、中央财经大学金融可持续发展研究团队、中国农业大学领军教授人才项目的资助
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