本文通过在出口国内增加值率的决定模型中引入汇率,将有效汇率对加工出口企业国内增加值率的影响机制分解为贸易渠道和投资渠道,并以企业可获得的国内中间品种类来衡量贸易渠道,以企业吸收外商直接投资和企业对外直接投资来衡量投资渠道,利用加工贸易企业数据对理论假说进行实证检验。本文研究发现,人民币有效汇率影响企业出口国内增加值率的贸易渠道在2008年全球金融危机前十分显著,人民币有效汇率贬值促使企业更少使用进口中间品,导致出口国内增加值率上升。但在此之后,投资渠道的影响逐渐占据主导地位,人民币有效汇率升值将促使中国企业进一步提高出口国内增加值率。
Abstract
Success in containing COVID-19 allows China to become the only major economy worldwide to achieve positive growth in 2020, followed by the appreciation of RMB exchange rate. Then, it is worth noting whether Chinese enterprises can continue to maintain and improve their international competitiveness and promote high-quality development to move up in the Global Value Chain （GVC） amid the pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation.
By introducing the exchange rate into a decision model of Domestic Value-Added Ratio （DVAR）,this paper decomposes the influence mechanism of effective exchange rates on DVAR into the trade and investment channel. The paper uses the domestic input varieties to measure the trade channel, and the foreign direct investment （FDI） & outward foreign direct investment （OFDI） to measure the investment channel, which empirically tests the predictive hypotheses regarding the relative importance of the trade and investment channel derived from our theoretical model based on Chinese firm-level data in processing trade.
Consistent with the results of Yu & Cui （2018）,it is found that the trade channel is highly significant before the financial crisis: the depreciation of RMB effective exchange rate promoted enterprises to use less imported materials, leading to the increase of DVAR. However, since then, the impact of investment channel that improved Chinese firms' markups has tended to dominate and become significantly higher than that of the trade channel. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB effective exchange rate could boost Chinese enterprises' DVAR to a further increase.
Based on the main findings and under the dual-circulation development pattern of taking domestic development as the mainstay, with domestic and international development reinforcing each other, this paper puts forward related policy suggestions. Firstly, encourage enterprises to produce more kinds of domestic intermediate goods and reduce their dependence on imported intermediate goods. Secondly, further promote enterprise linkage and improve the domestic industrial chain. Thirdly, open up at a higher level to ensure the smooth flow of FDI and OFDI. Finally, create a more open, fair and convenient investment environment for enterprises of all kinds of ownership.
关键词
人民币有效汇率 /
出口国内增加值率 /
国内中间品 /
外商直接投资 /
对外直接投资
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Key words
RMB Effecwtive Exchange Rate /
Domestic Value-Added Ratio /
Domestic Intermediate-Goods /
Foreign Direct Investment /
Outward Foreign Direct Investment
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中图分类号：
F832
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基金
*本文获国家自然科学基金项目“跨国并购中的经济国家主义：基于CFIUS 审查交易的研究”（71973152）、中央高校基本科研业务费青年教师创新项目“经济国家主义与竞争中性原则对跨国并购的影响机制及传导效应研究”（2722020JCT009）、研究生教学教改项目“金融数据分析与论文写作”（YZKC202115） 资助
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