数字金融对居民的债务扩张效应*

丁骋骋, 余欢欢

国际金融研究 ›› 2022 ›› Issue (10) : 38-48.

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国际金融研究 ›› 2022 ›› Issue (10) : 38-48.
金融理论与政策

数字金融对居民的债务扩张效应*

  • 丁骋骋, 余欢欢
作者信息 +

Research on Debt Expansion Effect of Digital Finance on Residents

  • Ding Chengcheng, Yu Huanhuan
Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

数字金融在缓解流动性约束、提升居民融资便利的同时,也可能助推居民杠杆率短期内快速攀升。本文利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年、2016年和2018年三年面板数据,对数字金融的债务扩张效应进行实证分析。研究发现:数字金融的发展显著推高居民资产负债率,数字金融存在债务扩张效应且具有典型的“长尾”特征;数字金融主要通过支付机制、融资机制和投资机制三种渠道实现债务扩张;数字金融与资产负债率的关系受到传统金融发展的影响,传统金融发展水平越低,数字金融的杠杆提升效应越强。综上,本文认为,满足普惠的需求不一定就是合理的,“数字普惠金融”并不等同于“数字金融”+“普惠群体”。为降低居民负债尤其是“长尾”群体的负债风险,数字金融服务的供给方应精准分析客户需求的合理性,而需求方应加强风险意识,量入为出、合理负债,政府也应加强引导。

Abstract

The development of digital finance is a revolutionary change in social progress. It not only reduces the cost of financial services and improves the efficiency of financial services, but also improves the coverage of personal financial services and financing convenience. However, it is undeniable that, while easing liquidity constraints and improving residents' financing convenience, digital finance may also boost residents' leverage ratios to rise rapidly in the short term. The negative consequences that digital finance may lead to household indebtedness deserve further attention.
This paper uses the three-year panel data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2014, 2016 and 2018, selects the Digital Financial Inclusion Index (DFII) as the core explanatory variable, and the asset-liability ratio as the explained variable to empirically test the relationship between digital finance and household debt leverage.
The study found that the development of digital finance has significantly pushed up the asset-liability ratio of residents, and the debt expansion effect of digital finance has a typical “long tail” characteristic. Digital finance mainly realizes the debt expansion effect through three channels: payment mechanism, financing mechanism and investment mechanism. In addition, the relationship between digital finance and asset-liability ratio is affected by the development of traditional finance. The lower the development level of traditional finance, the stronger the leverage enhancement effect of digital finance.
In conclusion, this paper believes that it is not necessarily reasonable to meet the needs of inclusiveness, while “digital inclusive finance” is not the same as “digital finance” and “inclusive group”. In order to reduce the debt risk of residents' debt, especially the“long-tail”group, the supplier of digital financial services needs to accurately analyze the rationality of customer needs, while the demander needs to strengthen risk awareness, live within their means, with reasonable indebtedness. At the same time, the government needs to guide digital platforms to develop the inclusive finance that the “long tail” groups really need.

关键词

数字金融 / 债务扩张效应 / “长尾”特征 / 信贷约束

Key words

Digital Finance / Debt Expansion Effect / Long Tail Characteristic / Credit Constraint

引用本文

导出引用
丁骋骋, 余欢欢. 数字金融对居民的债务扩张效应*[J]. 国际金融研究, 2022(10): 38-48
Ding Chengcheng, Yu Huanhuan. Research on Debt Expansion Effect of Digital Finance on Residents[J]. Studies of International Finance, 2022(10): 38-48
中图分类号: F832   

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基金

*本文获浙江省自然科学基金一般项目“弱连带、结构洞与民间借贷危机的生成机理研究:治理的视角”(LY19G030015)资助
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