传导链条畅通是货币政策发挥作用的基本保障。本文运用日本91家区域性商业银行财务数据构建广义矩估计面板向量自回归模型,研究发现,日本非常规货币政策虽有助于增加银行贷款,但效果非常有限,即货币政策信贷传导渠道阻塞。究其原因,除超低利率催生抵消机制外,人口老龄化引发信贷需求萎缩也难辞其咎,即人口年龄结构与银行贷款间存在倒U型关系,意味着以降低利率、扩大基础货币供给为特征的非常规货币政策可能会失去作用基础。本文借助反证法剖析解释日本信贷增速失衡的“贷款供给收缩观”“周期性需求波动观”和“衰退后遗症观”,进一步确认了人口老龄化的重要作用。本文的研究对人口老龄化背景下中国货币政策科学决策有重要的启示意义。
Abstract
Unimpeded transmission chain is a basic guarantee for monetary policy. Based on financial data from 91 commercial banks in Japan, the paper finds that unconventional monetary policies could increase bank lending, but the effect is limited, which means the credit transmission channels are blocked. The reason is in addition to a negative mechanism generated by ultra-low interest rates, shrinking credit demand caused by the aging population is another reason. An“inverted U-shaped”relationship between age structure and bank loans means unconventional monetary policy characterized by lowering interest rates and expanding supply of base money has lost its foundation. This paper has important implications for the scientific decision-making of Chinese monetary policy against the background of aging population.
According to the findings, this article gives four suggestions. Firstly, monetary policy authority should study the potential correlation between age structure and credit growth rate in depth, and establish a scientific and dynamic monitoring and warning system to reflect the fluctuations of the credit market. Secondly, we should save the room of monetary policy by carefully using large-scale stimulus packages while relying heavily on structural policy tools to vigorously support the development of industries such as scientific and technological innovation, environmental protection, as well as medical, health and old-age care services. Thirdly, the aging of the population means to improve the marketization of interest rates and realize the transformation from quantitative to price model based monetary policy, which is not the end point of the reform and adjustment, and the monetary policy maker should explore a new regulatory system adapted to the aging economy in advance. Lastly, we should draw on international experience to strengthen coordination and cooperation between monetary policies and fiscal policy, the labor market and the social security system, and lift the birth control policy at an appropriate time so as to increase the willingness of families to have children.
关键词
非常规货币政策 /
信贷传导渠道 /
人口老龄化 /
面板向量自回归 /
人口多项式
{{custom_keyword}} /
Key words
Unconventional Monetary Policy /
Credit Transmission Channel /
Aging Population /
Vector Auto-Regression Model /
Population Polynomial
{{custom_keyword}} /
中图分类号：
F823
C924
{{custom_clc.code}}
({{custom_clc.text}})
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] 大前研一. 低欲望社会[M]. 北京:机械工业出版社,2018
[2] 方显仓,张卫峰.人口老龄化与货币政策有效性———理论演绎与跨国证据[J]. 国际金融研究,2019(7):14-24
[3] 辜朝明. 宏观经济学的圣杯[M]. 北京:东方出版社,2016
[4] 李建强,张淑翠. 人口老龄化影响财政与货币政策的有效性吗?[J]. 财经研究,2018,44(7):17-33
[5] 邹瑾. 人口老龄化与货币政策效力———基于新兴经济体的实证分析[J]. 当代财经,2017(3):5-15
[6] Abrigo M R M,Love I. Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata[J]. Stata Journal,2016,16(3):778-804
[7] Borio C,Gambacorta L,Hofmann B.The Influence of Monetary Policy on Bank Profitability[J]. International Finance,2017,20(1):48-63
[8] Borio C,Gambacorta L.Monetary Policy and Bank Lending in a Low Interest Rate Environment:Diminishing Effectiveness[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2017,54(B):217-231
[9] Bowman D,Cai F,Davies S.Quantitative Easing and Bank Lending:Evidence from Japan[J]. Journal of International Money & Finance,2015,57:15-30
[10] Brunnermeier M K.,Koby Y.The Reversal Interest Rate[R]. NBER Working Paper 25406,2018
[11] Chakraborty I,Goldstein I,Mackinlay A.Monetary Stimulus and Bank Lending[R]. Finance Down Under 2017 Building on the Best from the Cellars of Finance,2019
[12] ChenWY. Demographic Structure and Monetary Policy Effectiveness:Evidence from Taiwan[J]. Quality & Quantity,2017,51(6):2521-2544
[13] Claessens S,Coleman N,Donnelly M.Low-For-Long:Interest Rates and Banks' Interest Margins and Profitability:Cross-Country Evidence[J]. Journal of Financial Intermediation,2018(A):1-16
[14] Eggertsson G B,Juelsrud R,Summers L H.Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel[R]. NBER Working Paper No. w25416,2019
[15] Fair R C,Dominguez K M.Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations[J]. American Economic Review,1991,81(5):1276-1294
[16] Fougère M,Mercenier J,Mérette M.A Sectoral and Occupational Analysis of Population Aging in Canada Using a Dynamic CGE Overlapping Generations Model[J]. Economic Modelling,2007,24(4):690-711
[17] Fujiwara I,Teranishi Y.A Dynamic New Keynesian Life-Cycle Model:Societal Aging,Demographics,and MonetaryPolicy[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2008,32(8):2398-2427
[18] Imam P A.Shock from Graying:Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness[J]. International Journal of Finance & Economics,2015,20(2):138-154
[19] Juselius M,Takáts E.Can Demography Affect Inflation and Monetary Policy[R]. BIS Working Papers No. 485,2015
[20] Kara E,Von Thadden L.Interest Rate Effects of Demographic Changes in a New-Keynesian Life-Cycle Framework[J]. Macroeconomic Dynamics,2016,20(1):120-164
[21] Miles D.Should Monetary Policy be Different in a Greyer World?[R]. Aging,Financial Markets and Monetary Policy,Springer Berlin Heidelberg,2002:243-276
[22] Rodnyansky A,Darmouni O.The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Bank Lending Behavior[J]. Review of Financial Studies(Forthcoming),2017
[23] Wong A.Population Aging and the Transmission of Monetary Policy to Consumption[R]. Society for Economic Dynamics Meeting Papers,2016
[24] Yoshino N,Miyamoto H.Declined Effectiveness of Fiscal and Monetary Policies Faced with Aging Population in Japan[J]. Japan and the World Economy,2017,42:32-44
{{custom_fnGroup.title_cn}}
脚注
{{custom_fn.content}}
京公网安备 11010202008337号
