本文梳理了“不可能三角”的理论发展脉络及政策实践成果,并对近期提出的“不可能三角”和“不可能二元”之争展开了实证研究和理论基础的讨论。现有的实证研究中,受指标和样本选取等因素的影响,“不可能三角”是否退化为“不可能二元”仍没有定论,但“不可能三角”至少对发展中国家依然有效。理论上解释“不可能二元”形成的机制包括长期利率机制、金融周期机制、跨国银行机制、风险溢价机制和外币信贷机制等。在此基础上,本文讨论了新形势下资本账户管制、汇率制度选择等问题。
Abstract
This paper sorts out the theoretical development and the policy practices of“trilemma”,and discusses the empirical research and theoretical basis of the recent debate regarding“trilemma”and“dilemma”. Empirical study shows that due to the difference in indicators and sample selection, whether“trilemma”may deteriorate into“dilemma”remains uncertain, but the certain thing is that“trilemma”remains effective at least in developing countries. Theories explain the formation mechanism of“trilemma”including long-term interest rate mechanism, financial cycle mechanism, international bank mechanism, risk premium mechanism and foreign currency credit mechanism. Based on that, the paper discusses such major international financial issues as whether the capital account should be controlled, how to choose the exchange rate system and how to deal with the excessive growth of global foreign reserves.
关键词
“不可能三角” /
汇率制度 /
资本账户开放
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Key words
Trilemma /
Exchange Rate Regime /
Liberalization of Capital Account
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中图分类号：
F821
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