This paper empirically investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on global value chains and analyzes the impact mechanism between the two using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) released in 2016 to construct a cross-country panel data model consisting of 19 countries. The results show that a rise in economic policy uncertainty raises the GVC length, forward participation and backward participation of a country or industry, but lowers its division of labor position in the GVC system. The finding remains robust after overcoming the endogeneity problem and heterogeneity tests. Further study finds that alleviating financing constraints and enhancing innovation capacity as mediating channels significantly enhances the impact of economic policy uncertainty on GVCs. The results of the threshold analysis suggest that the impact of economic policy uncertainty on GVCs will further increase as the size of the economy increases.
Compared with previous studies, the marginal contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in three aspects: firstly, this paper clarifies the logic of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on GVCs based on the intrinsic relationship between three dimensions of GVCs: location, backward and forward participation, and length, which avoids the possible omission of previous studies in the literature that only focus on one aspect of GVCs. Secondly, this paper uses different measurement data and measurement methods to conduct empirical analysis at the global level and China's level, and comprehensively tests the research hypothesis, so as to make the conclusions of this paper more robust and reliable. Thirdly, the paper focuses on the impact characteristics and heterogeneity of the developed country sample, thus revealing the impact of economic policy uncertainty on different industries and global value chains in developed countries. This not only helps to reveal the impact path of economic policy uncertainty on GVCs, but also provides a theoretical and empirical basis for promoting China's value chain reconstruction and positioning in the environment of elevated economic policy uncertainty.
Key words
Economic Policy Uncertainty /
Global Value Chain Embedding /
Mediation Effect /
Threshold Analysis
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