The economic cycle refers to a phenomenon in which economic expansion and economic contraction occuraltermnately and cyclically in the economic operation. Business cycle research is of great significance to the analysis of the eco-nomic situation, the predliction of the financial crisis and the formulation of government macro-control policies.Based on theSamuelson (1939)multiplier-accelerator model, this paper introduces variable government expenditure and spontaneous con-sumption, and constructs a more comprehensive dynamic equation of economic operation. The mathematical derivation of theequation finds that the economic cycle is determined by the marginal consumption tendency and the acceleration number,while the magnitude of the acceleration number determines whether the economic operation is cyclical.Subsequently, regres-sion analysis is performed on the two sample intervals from 1978 to 1996 and from 2000 to 2017.The results show that themarginal propensity for consumption has decreased, the number of accelerations has increased, and the length of the economiccycle has also increased from 12.8 to 19.3 years.Finally, according to the model,it is proposed to deal with the situation thatthe excessive acceleration caused by overheated investment or economic recession may cause the economic growth to deviatefrom the cycle, and related suggestions are made. Firstly, keeping investment within a reasonable range is an importat guarantee for China 's stable economic performance. Secondly, the govermment should play an active regulatory role and take into ac-count both short-term and long-term economic growth targets.
Key words
Business Cycle /
Investment Multiplier /
Multiplier-Accelerator Model /
Chinese Economy
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Footnotes
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