全球银行业系统性风险的成因:内忧还是外患?——基于74个国家的比较分析

Studies of International Finance ›› 2017, Vol. 363 ›› Issue (8) : 65-74.

Studies of International Finance ›› 2017, Vol. 363 ›› Issue (8) : 65-74.

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Abstract

Based on the banking system of different countries, the affecting factors of system risk of banks were built by RLS and FGLS models. Taking the financial crisis of 2008 as a typical event, the contribution degree of all reasons were analyzed by Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition model. The system risk of banks was the results of both internal causes and external causes. Especially, Internal causes were the main causes. In detail, regulators of banks should bear the primary liability of banks' system risk. Low requirement of capital and excessively decentralized capital are both unreasonable regulations. While, the strict push of those unreasonable regulations could make the system risk worse and worse. Consumers were the second responsible party of the banking system risks. Low saving rate, low credit environment and low financial awareness accelerated the explosion of bank system risks. The liability of banks became less obvious. They should keep higher capital adequacy rate and rational percentage of derivative trading, which could decrease the bank system risks effectively. As for those external causes, stable economic development and greater openness of the banking system could keep the system risks down continually.

Key words

System Risk / Bank / Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition

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