在全球新变局之下,国际货币体系面临调整与重构。短期内,美元的国际货币地位暂不会被取代;中长期来看,国际货币体系可能会发生新的变革。当前,代表性的国际货币体系改革方案包括部分以大宗商品为锚的布雷顿森林体系III、以SDR或数字货币为基础的一体化超主权货币体系、以多种储备货币为基础的多元化货币体系。本文基于货币发行和货币竞争两个维度构建国际货币体系改革的二元分析框架,对上述代表性改革方案进行比较分析,发现信用货币体系仍然是符合货币演进规律的主要货币本位形式,多元化的国际货币格局可能更为现实,数字货币亦有可能成为国际货币激烈竞争的新维度,但其影响尚不确定。在此背景下,我国应当在国际金融秩序重构过程中发挥更为积极的作用,以安全与发展为目标,稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化。
Abstract
Since the 21st century, the stability and sustainability of the current international monetary system dominated by the US dollar have been questioned. With the new global upheavals such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the wave of US dollar interest rate hikes, calls for reform of the international monetary system have grown, and there are diverse opinions on the direction of its future evolution.
This paper compares the reform proposals for the international monetary system and provides a forecast on its future evolution based on the underlying driving factors. From the perspective of driving factors, the global economic landscape is becoming multipolar. The industrial chain is shifting towards regionalization, decentralization, and fragmentation. Additionally, the global financial market is further fragmenting, and the international political order is undergoing adjustment and rearrangement. Representative reform proposals include the Bretton Woods III system anchored in commodities, the integrated supranational currency system based on SDR or digital currency, and a diversified currency system based on multiple reserve currencies. Based on an analysis of currency issuance and competition, this paper believes that a diversified international monetary system is a more realistic development direction. While digital currency may have some marginal impact, its uncertainty remains.
The internationalization of the RMB may face new opportunities in the process of reforming the international monetary system. In the future, China should play a more active role in the reconstruction of the international monetary order and steadily and solidly promote the internationalization of the RMB based on the goals of security and development. The top priority is to maintain stable economic growth. Following that, attention should be paid to optimizing the promotion strategy of the RMB internationalization. This includes aligning it with the restructuring of the industrial chain, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the RCEP region; enhancing the interaction between the onshore market and the offshore market, and actively exploring the possibility of cross-border use of digital RMB.
关键词
国际货币体系 /
货币国际化 /
改革方案 /
人民币国际化
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Key words
International Monetary System /
Currency Internationalization /
Reform Plan /
RMB Internationalization
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中图分类号：
F821
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基金
*本文获上海交通大学现代金融研究中心课题“国际体系分化中的人民币国际化”资助
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