保持宏观政策的连续性不仅有助于引导市场形成稳定预期,而且对于提高政策调控的有效性,促进经济行稳致远具有重要作用。本文以公司债券发行定价为研究对象,选取2007—2021年我国沪深交易所交易的公司债券为研究样本,深入探讨了政策连续性对企业债券融资成本的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,政策连续性水平上升能够通过“稳预期”“稳业绩”和“稳杠杆”机制显著降低企业债券融资成本,且该效应在经济下行期、金融压力上升期及债券违约事件爆发后尤为明显。相较于财政政策连续性而言,货币政策连续性上升更有助于降低债券融资成本,且政策连续性上升有助于提高企业债券和股权融资规模,优化企业融资结构。本文的研究对于统筹逆周期调控和跨周期调节,坚持政策连续性进而改善企业投融资环境与促进实体经济高质量发展具有重要启示。
Abstract
Maintaining macroeconomic policy continuity helps form stable market expectations, improve the effectiveness of policy regulation, and thus promote economic stability. Reducing corporate financing costs and optimizing corporate financing structure are of vital importance for realizing the high-quality development of real economy. The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact and mechanism of policy continuity on the cost of corporate bonds.
Using the data of corporate bonds that traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange from 2007 to 2021, this paper built an ordinary least squares(OLS)model which contains 1587 corporate bonds, 5221 observations, and fixed effects to realize empirical research. This paper also analyzed three mechanisms that explained how policy continuity influenced the cost of corporate bonds in terms of market expectation, firm performance and firm leverage. In addition, this paper also examined the heterogeneous effects based on economic cycles, financial pressure, bond market stability, and policy type.
The results showed that the increase in policy continuity level could significantly reduce the cost of corporate bond financing through the mechanisms of“stabilizing expectations”“stabilizing performance”and“stabilizing leverage”. This effect was particularly prominent in periods of economic downturn, increasing financial pressure, and after bond default events occurred. Compared to fiscal policy continuity, an increase in monetary policy continuity is more conducive to reducing bond financing costs, and increasing in policy continuity helps to increase the scale of corporate bond and equity financing, optimizing corporate financing structure.
This paper has important implications for coordinating both countercyclical and cross cyclical regulation, emphasizing policy continuity, improving the investment and financing environment of enterprises, and promoting high-quality development of the real economy. Specifically, the paper proposed three suggestions: ensuring the continuity, consistency, and stability of macroeconomic policy; emphasizing the fundamental role of expectation management in macroeconomic regulation; and further optimizing the price discovery function of the bond market.
关键词
政策连续性 /
公司债券 /
债券融资成本 /
融资结构
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Key words
Policy Continuity /
Corporate Bond /
Bond Financing Cost /
Financing Structure
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中图分类号:
F832
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基金
*本文获国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘稳增长'和‘防风险'双目标下财政政策与货币政策跨周期协调机制研究”(22BJL018)资助
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