本文基于92个发展中经济体1999—2017年的面板数据,构建信息更丰富的资本管制指标,分析对居民和非居民资本管制对货币政策独立性的影响。结果显示,对居民的管制尤其是对居民资本流出的管制能够显著提高一国的货币政策独立性,而对非居民的管制并没有显著影响货币政策独立性。进一步探究造成这种差异的原因发现,对居民的资本管制尤其是对居民资本流出的管制可以显著降低跨境资本净流动规模,而跨境资本净流动的增加会降低货币政策独立性。另外,汇率的稳定性会降低货币政策的独立性。基于以上结论,本文对如何提高资本管制有效性及提升货币政策独立性提出了政策建议。
Abstract
In the context of economic globalization and financial liberalization, capital control is the last firewall for developing economies to ensure the independence of monetary policy. There are differences in capital control measures between residents and non-residents in most economies, so the influence of two kinds of capital control on monetary policy may be different. The purpose of this study is to explore the different effects of resident and non-resident capital control on monetary autonomy and find the reasons for the differences.
Based on the review of relevant literature and theoretical analysis, this paper puts forward four hypotheses about the impact of residents and non -residents capital control on the independence of monetary policy. Furthermore, the paper constructs capital control indicators with richer information. Using these indicators and the panel data of 92 developing economies from 1999 to 2017, the paper conducts empirical analysis to test the four hypotheses.
The empirical results show that, for developing economies, capital controls on residents can significantly improve monetary autonomy, while controls on non-residents have no significant effect. Among the capital controls on residents, the controls on capital outflow can significantly improve the monetary autonomy, while the effect of the controls on capital inflow is not signify-cant. In addition, exchange rate flexibility will significantly improve the monetary autonomy of developing countries, but its effect on capital control policies is uncertain. The reason for the differences in the effects is that capital controls on residents can signif-icantly reduce the scale of cross-border net capital flows, which in turn can significantly increase monetary autonomy.
Based on above results, this paper proposes that in order to ensure the independence of monetary policy, developing economies need to maintain certain capital control and be cautious about the relaxation of capital control, especially about the capital controls on residents' capital outflow. The authority should analyze the behavioral characteristics and design management measures more accurately about non-resident capital control to improve the effectiveness of non-resident capital control. In addition, developing economies can implement relatively more flexible exchange rate regime, which is conducive to enhancing the independence of monetary policy.
关键词
资本管制 /
居民 /
非居民 /
货币政策独立性
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Key words
Capital Controls /
Resident /
Non-Resident /
Monetary Policy Independence
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中图分类号：
F831
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脚注
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基金
*本文获国家社会科学基金一般项目“人民币汇率预期、汇率波动与跨境资本流动研究”（17BJY198）资助
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