在国内经济下行和美联储货币政策溢出的背景下,我国名义利率受到较大下行压力。为此,本文在新凯恩斯主义模型框架下,基于零利率下限约束的视角,构建混合型货币政策规则,考察货币冲击、技术冲击与偏好冲击对宏观经济的影响,测算社会福利损失情况。研究结果表明,在基准模型中,扩张性货币政策带来了产出的增长,相比于价格型货币政策规则,虽然数量型货币政策规则的效果更好,但也提升了通胀水平,造成了一定程度的福利损失。当名义利率受到零利率下限约束时,由于名义利率工具失效,扩张性货币政策推升通胀的同时,也在更大程度上降低了实际利率,使得家庭消费得到更大提升。但通胀和产出缺口的波动更为剧烈,造成了更大的福利损失。当前,我国政策利率应避免落入零利率下限区间,依据稳增长与稳物价目标之间的权衡,根据数量型和价格型政策工具的有效组合,制定最优的混合型货币政策规则,使得调控更加精准有效。
Abstract
Against the backdrop of the domestic economic downturn and the Fed's （Board of Governors of The Federal Reserve System） monetary policy spillover, China's nominal interest rates are under greater downward pressure. Therefore, under the framework of the new Keynesian model, this paper constructs a hybrid monetary policy rule under the constraint of the zero lower bound of interest rate, and examines the macroeconomic effects and social welfare effects of monetary shocks, technology shocks and preference shocks.
The result shows that, firstly, in the benchmark model, expansionary monetary policy leads to an increase in output. While monetary policies with quantity-based rules are more effective compared to price-based monetary policy rules, quantity-based rules may raise the level of inflation and cause some degree of welfare loss. When nominal interest rates are constrained by the zero lower bound, expansionary monetary policy pushes up inflation while lowering real interest rates to a greater extent, allowing for a greater boost to household consumption as the nominal interest rate instrument fails. However, inflation and the output gap fluctuate more sharply, resulting in greater welfare losses.
Secondly, in the benchmark model, a positive technology shock will lead to a reduction in the output gap and inflation, which, under the interest rate rule, will lead to a reduction in nominal and real interest rates, thus driving output and consumption higher. If subject to the zero lower bound, as the nominal interest rate is bounded to zero and inflation falls, the real interest rate increases, leading to lower consumption and output. Finally, When subject to the zero lower bound, preference shocks amplify the degree of decline in macroeconomic variables.
In the future, China's policy interest rates should avoid falling into the zero lower bound, and monetary instruments should be based on the trade -off between the goals of stable growth and stable prices, and an optimal hybrid monetary policy rule should be formulated based on an effective combination of quantitative and price-based policy instruments to make regulation more accurate and effective.
关键词
零利率下限 /
混合型货币政策规则 /
宏观调控效应 /
社会福利效应
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Key words
Zero Lower Bound /
Hybrid Monetary Policy Rules /
Macro-Control Effect /
Social Welfare Effect
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中图分类号：
F822
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基金
*本文获国家社会科学基金重点项目“综合、一致与协调框架下的跨周期政策设计与逆周期调节研究”（21AJY024）、中央财经大学科教融合研究生学术新星孵化计划 （202240） 资助
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