金融开放是加剧银行业风险还是分散风险,是颇具争议的研究课题。本文借助Gygli et al.（2018）的金融开放指标,应用1999—2016年98个国家的跨国数据,检验了金融开放和银行风险承担的长期均衡和短期关系。从长期均衡关系来看,金融开放显著地提高了银行抵御风险能力,具有长期“促进效应”;从短期关系来看,金融开放则存在一定“风险效应”①。进一步研究发现,短期“风险效应”与外资银行资产占比不存在关联,而与市场制度环境显著相关,即完善的制度环境有助于弱化“风险效应”。结合中国实际情况,文章支持“以开放促改革”的观点,强调完善市场制度环境的重要性,为政策制定者提供实证依据。
Abstract
Recently, the Chinese government has been steadily active in expanding the opening up of the financial sector, involving eliminating market access barriers and expansion of business scope for foreign banks, insurance, securities, funds, futures, and other financial-related service industries. Whether financial openness aggravates or disperses the risks of the banking industry has long been a quite controversial research topic. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of financial openness on bank risk-taking.
By using Gygli et al.（2018）'s financial openness indices, this paper examines the long-run equilibrium and short-run relationship between financial openness and bank risk-taking, based on 98 countries data for the period 1999—2016. It is found that the estimate of long-run coefficient on financial openness is positive and statistically significant, indicating that financial openness will reduce risk-taking in the long run. By contrast, the mean value of the estimated short-run coefficients is negative and statistically significant, indicating that financial openness can increase risk-taking in the short run.
Furthermore, the paper examines the possible factors that might be associated with the adverse effects of financial openness. We find that the percentage of the total banking assets that are held by foreign banks are not associated with the estimates of country-specific short-run coefficients on financial openness. The statistical evidence indicates that the institutional environment is associated with the adverse short-run effects of financial openness on bank risk-taking, implying that the thorough institutional environment contributes to weaken the risk effect.
Our findings have important implications for policymakers who seek to develop more efficient and resilient banking sectors. Combined with China's actual situation, this paper supports the point of view that reform has been promoted by opening up. China's current financial industry's opening up policies can be utilized as supplementary means to defense systemic financial risk. This paper highlights the significance of promoting the market's institutional environment. To summarize, this paper provides empirical evidences forthe government of China.
关键词
金融开放 /
银行风险承担 /
PMG估计法 /
制度环境
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Key words
Financial Openness /
Bank Risk-Taking /
PMG Estimator /
Institutional Environment
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中图分类号：
F831
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基金
本文获国家自然科学基金青年项目“银行微观视角下跨国金融压力溢出效应及其控制策略研究”（71803063）、教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“金融大开放背景下跨国金融压力溢出与商业银行风险抵御能力研究”（18YJC790012）资助
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