随着世界各国频繁出现国际资本大规模流入或流出的现象,极端国际资本流动已成为国际金融领域广泛关注的重要问题。本文参考Forbes & Warnock （2012） 的方法,基于54个经济体1991年第一季度至2016年第四季度的国际资本流动数据,构建极端国际资本流动时期数据库,可识别四种极端国际资本流动事件类型：“激增（Surges）”“骤停（Sudden Stops）”“外逃（Flight）”以及“撤回（Retrenchment）”。基于该数据库,分析贸易开放度对极端国际资本流动的影响。实证结果表明,第一,一国贸易开放度越高,其发生极端国际资本流动事件的可能性越低。第二,在考虑了国家经济发展水平的差异后,贸易开放度对本国资本和外国资本流入和流出的影响存在显著差异。对于发达经济体,贸易开放度对外国资本流动和本国资本流动均有显著影响;对于发展中经济体,贸易开放度仅影响本国的资本流动,对外国资本流动的影响并不显著。第三,贸易开放度对长期资本极端流动与短期资本极端流动的影响并没有显著差异。基于本文的研究结果,建议我国应继续坚持贸易开放政策,且此后分析极端国际资本流动应将其细分为激增、骤停、外逃和撤回四类,对极端国际资本流动的监测应区分本国资本和外国资本异常流动情况。
Abstract
Recently, extreme international capital flow becomes an important research topic, since the phenomenon of large scale of international capital flow has frequently appeared in many countries. Referring to the method of Forbes & Warnock（2012） , using the international capital flow data of 54 economies from 1991Q1 to 2016Q4, this paper constructs an extreme international capital flow period database, which can identify“Surges”“Sudden Stops”“Flight”and“Retrenchment”, the four types of extreme international capital flow events. Following that, the paper analyzes the impact of trade openness on extreme international capital flows.
The empirical results show that,firstly, an economy with a higher trade openness has a lower probability of extreme in-ternational capital flows. Secondly, given the differences in economic development, the impacts of trade openness on domestic capital and foreign capital inflows and outflows differs obviously. Trade openness has impact on both domestic and foreign capital flow in developed economies, but only domestic capital flow in developing economies, demonstrating no significant im-pact on foreign capital flow. Thirdly, there are no significant differences found as for the impacts of trade openness on the long-run and short-run capital flow.
Based on the empirical findings, the paper suggests that we should insist on the trade openness policy, and the analysis of extreme international capital flows should be subdivided into four categories: inflows and outflows of foreign capital and in-flows and outflows of domestic capital. Besides, the policy-makers should distinguish the extreme flows of domestic capital and foreign capital.
关键词
极端国际资本流动 /
外国资本流动 /
本国资本流动 /
贸易开放度
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Key words
Extreme International Capital Flows /
Foreign Capital Flows /
Domestic Capital Flows /
Trade Openness
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中图分类号：
F831
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参考文献
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基金
* 本文获国家自然科学基金项目“资本流入逆转背景下中国汇率政策与货币政策协调研究”（71603286）、国家自然科学基金项目“人民币均衡汇率非对称调整与政策启示”（71403295）、国家社科重大基金项目“‘一带一路’区域价值链构建与中国产业转型升级研究”（18ZDA038） 和中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（2722020JCG014/2722020JCG022） 资助
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